Zone 2 Key Points
- Isolated to Scattered rain & storms redevelop after 11 am – 12 pm today across southern Michigan and northern Indiana. More scattered rain and storms will develop across zone 2 through the afternoon in IN/MI/OH.
- Another push of some isolated to scattered storms looks to move in across portions of zone 2 after 12-1 am Friday morning.
FRI 12 AM
- An isolated to a scattered chance of storms will emerge across portions of zone 2 once again Friday afternoon. Per the latest RPM model, storms will develop across southern zone 2 after 1-2 PM Friday afternoon. Right now central and northern zone 2 look to remain dry, but it’s not out of the question the storm threat could shift north a bit.
- While many places will remain dry over the next 24-48 hours, there will be some areas that pick up some rainfall. I do believe there will be some locally heavy areas of rainfall, perhaps amounts of up to 2-3.5” or so locally under some of the heavier storms.
- Saturday rain chances will remain in the forecast across zone 2. However, there are still some questions regarding the exact timing and overall coverage.
Confidence and Risks
- Confidence in afternoon and evening rain/storms is high. However, I am somewhat less confident on coverage. Models to seem to be a bit under aggressive with coverage this afternoon and evening.
- Confidence in strong to severe storms today is moderate. While the better ingredients that were in place yesterday will be to the east today, afternoon instability and high amounts of moisture could allow for some strong to severe storms to get going. The main risk would be strong winds, but I won’t rule out a tornado or two, especially farther east/southeast.
- Confidence in rain and storms overnight is moderate. Confidence in timing/placement of overnight storms is slightly less than moderate.
- Moderate to high confidence exists regarding Friday’s storms and timing. More moderate confidence exists regarding the overall coverage and placement.
- Moderate confidence exists regarding localized areas of heavy rain, possibly up to 3.5” or so. However, confidence in exact location and timing is very low due to the scattered nature of the storms.
- In the weekend forecast, I have slightly above average confidence in the forecast across northern zone 2. However, across southern zone 2 confidence does decrease. This is because the NAM is less aggressive with rain on Saturday, while the EURO has a much better chance just southwest of the forecast area early to mid-day Saturday. I do believe the overall progression and problems in the forecast data resolving the solution to the tropical disturbance 99L is leading to lower confidence forecasts in the long-range because of a wide variety of model solutions.