Zone 1 Key Points
- Rain and storms continue moving in the from the west this morning. Likely impacting the IL/IN state line around 12 pm, storms look to be weakening at this time. Around 1-2 PM a line of weakening rain/storms looks to be impacting Indianapolis and central portions of Indiana before it progresses to the west this afternoon.
- New rain/storm development is possible this afternoon/evening after the main line comes through. New storm development will be most likely be after 3-4 pm.
- While not everyone will get in on rainfall today, there will be some areas of very heavy rain. Localized areas of 2.5-3.5” isn’t out of the question under some of the heavier afternoon/evening storms.
- Some models do suggest a line of storms could impact northern zone 1 after 10-11 pm tonight with storms & heavy rain. However, other models are not on board with this thought.
- On Thursday the day will start out mostly dry with only a few showers/storms around. By late afternoon new scattered t’storms will develop across northern zone 1 and southern zone 2. It currently looks like storms will develop roughly from the Ft. Wayne to Lafayette, IN line, then moves south/southeast through the evening. As the front works through the forecast area.
Confidence and Risks
- Confidence in morning storms to the west weakening as they come in and move through is moderate to high. My only concern being, models are not handling the situation all that well.
- Confidence in afternoon thunderstorm development is moderate to high. However, the exact timing could prove a bit tricky as it will depend on the initial push of rain.
- Confidence in the larger area of storms and heavy rain for later tonight is low.
- While confidence in strong storms this afternoon/evening is moderate to slight better than moderate, the severe weather threat looks to be on the low-end of the threat. The main risks will be gusty winds, perhaps some small hail, and a couple of tornadoes.
- Higher than normal confidence exists for areas of locally heavy rain. Totals of around 2.5-3.5” are not out of the question locally. However, confidence in exact placement of these totals is low due to the scattered nature of the heavier storms.
- Confidence and timing for storm placement and development on Thursday is relatively high since storms will be more focused along a front.
- High confidence is in place regarding a gusty to strong thunderstorm threat Thursday afternoon/evening. While no organized severe weather events are forecast to occur, a few warnings could get going for damaging winds or hail.