Zone 2 Key Points
- Rain and storms will continue to move east across Illinois this morning. While rain is already pushing into western Indiana, heavier rain will arrive at the IL/IN state line around 11 am to 12 pm, likely weakening as it does. This area of rain/storms will continue east through the afternoon making it into the Ft. Wayne area around 2-3 PM. This line of rain and storms will continue to weaken as it enters western Ohio around 3-5 PM.
- New rain/storm development is possible this afternoon/evening after the initial line comes through. New storm development will likely be after 3-4 pm.
- While not everyone will get in on rainfall today, there will be some areas of very heavy rain. Localized areas of 2-3” of new rainfall aren’t out of the question under some of the heavier afternoon/evening storms.
- Some models do suggest a line of storms could impact zone 2 across Indiana after 10-11 pm tonight with storms & heavy rain. However, many other models are not on board with this thought.
- On Thursday the day will start out mostly dry with only a few showers/storms around. By late afternoon new scattered t’storms will develop across zone 2. It currently looks like storms will develop roughly from the Ft. Wayne to Lafayette, IN line, then move south/southeast through the evening. As the front works through the forecast area.
Confidence and Risks
- Confidence in morning storms to the west weakening as they come in and move through is moderate to high.
- Confidence in afternoon thunderstorm development is moderate to high. However, the exact timing could prove a bit tricky as it will depend on the initial push of rain.
- The Confidence in gusty to strong storms today is moderate to slightly higher than moderate. Confidence in severe weather is low, despite that, a few severe weather warnings can’t be ruled out. Main risks will be gusty winds, heavy rain, and perhaps a tornado or two.
- Confidence in the larger area of storms and heavy rain for later tonight is very low.
- Higher than normal confidence exists for areas of locally heavy rain. Totals of around 2-3” are not out of the question locally. However, confidence in exact placement of these totals is low due to the scattered nature of the heavier storms.
- Confidence and timing for storm placement and development on Thursday is relatively high since storms will be more focused along a front.
- High confidence is in place regarding a gusty to strong thunderstorm threat Thursday afternoon/evening. While an organized severe weather threat is not forecast to occur, a few warnings could get going for damaging winds or hail.