Zone 2 Key Points
- While we are starting off sunny clouds will start to increase throughout the day. That will be thanks to an area of high pressure that is moving off to the east today. However, no rain is in the forecast today.
- While isolated rain/storms can’t be ruled out overnight tonight. More rain/storms will enter western Indiana around 7-8 AM Wednesday morning then move east. These look to impact Ft. Wayne around 9-10 AM, then move into east Indiana and west Ohio around 12:30-1:30 PM.
- More rain and storms will develop across zone 2 Wednesday afternoon after the initial round of thunderstorms. Best timing for development will be after 3-4 PM across southern Michigan and northern Indiana.
WED 7 PM
- Late Wednesday night into early Thursday storms will continue to develop to the north and to the west. It does look like some of these will congeal into a line by 12-1 AM then push from west to east across zone two late Wednesday night into Thursday.
THU 5 AM
- Thursday a front will be lingering across southern portions of the forecast area. This will allow new rain/storm development late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. It currently looks like the best chances will be somewhat scattered Thursday afternoon/evening.
- New rainfall totals of 2.5-4” will be possible under some of the heavier storms. However, if the line of storms Wednesday night into Thursday develops there could be a “training” effect locally. This would allow 4”+ of rain to fall locally through Thursday!
Risks and Confidence
- Timing regarding storms on Wednesday is moderately high as many models are in the same camp with the overall timing of rain and storms. Perhaps the most uncertain point of the forecast will be the exact placement of the AM rain in a north/south orientation.
- Storms will develop again tomorrow afternoon, some could be gusty to strong. Confidence in the gusty/strong storm dynamics are high, it’s the confidence in afternoon storms that remains lower. Main risks would be damaging winds, hail, heavy rain, and a couple of tornadoes.
- Moderate confidence exists in rainfall on Thursday. However, somewhat lower confidence is shown regarding exact placement and timing of rain/storms late Wednesday into Thursday. This lower confidence would include locally heavy amounts of 4”+.
- It’s not out of the question strong storms could become possible Thursday afternoon with the dynamics in place. Confidence in this is moderate, but confidence in exact placement of dynamics and surface features is somewhat lower.