A mix of clouds and sun remains in place across zone 2 this morning with only a small area of rain in northwestern Ohio. As we progress into mid-day and into the afternoon, rain and storms will start to develop across portions of zone 2. These will be scattered in nature so not everyone will get in on today’s rainfall.
Through the overnight rain and storms will die out as we lose daytime heating. While most of the overnight will be calm, a few showers or storms may develop late tonight into early Friday morning. However, better storm chances will be back in the forecast for Friday afternoon.
FRI 5 PM
The main story will be the potential for heavy rain and even flooding as we go through the weekend. This will be thanks to a cold front and 500 MB trough that will swing in from the west/northwest. As it does, it will pick up some tropical moisture from the south. This is a classic setup for widespread heavy rainfall.
Right now models are still trying to work out the exact placement of the heaviest rainfall. Our thoughts have been that the heaviest rainfall would be west and north of the model’s first thoughts and the latest data has brought the heavy rain farther west. However, we are still waiting to see how much (if any) of a northern shift there will be in the rainfall track.
GFS RAINFALL FORECAST