Wednesday Weather Package

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Good Wednesday Morning,

We are still looking at the upcoming weekend storm system. There is potential for a serious rain producer but the issue is just fine tuning exactly WHERE the heaviest rain goes.  

Here is a map of where we are most concerned right now after extensive analysis..again let me remind you the slightest shift in any pieces of the puzzle can alter this track, however as of right now the ensembles are displaying above average confidence. Slight risk is first circle and moderate risk is second circle in relation to heaviest rain and flash flood threats.

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Chillicothe 7 day:

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Atlanta 7 day:
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El Paso 7 day:

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Mt Pleasant 7 day:
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Chillicothe video:

Atlanta video:

El Paso Forecast:

Look for a mostly dry forecast today with partly sunny skies. Temperatures will rise into the low 90’s.

sfc_temps

Dry weather is expected overnight with temperatures in the low 70’s. Thursday will start off dry with mostly sunny skies expected. Heading into the afternoon there is a slight chance for a few isolated showers/storms. A majority of the area likely stays dry, but the potential is there during the afternoon.

The latest NAM 4km model highlights that potential for an isolated/widely scattered storm:

comp_ref

Better chances will arrive Thursday night into Friday morning. The latest computer models bring showers and thunderstorms into the area primarily after midnight. I expect showers and storms to increase in coverage through Friday morning.

Latest RPM 4 AM CT Friday:

rpm

Depending on the speed of the cold front will determine the duration of the showers and storms into Friday afternoon. Right now, it looks like showers and storms will be around through mid-day with decreasing coverage into the afternoon and drier conditions into the evening.

Widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time. However, it’s not impossible for a few strong storms to bring some gusty winds. The main threat will be heavy rain.

Rainfall amounts with this system will be in the range of 0.50” to 1.00” with locally higher amounts are possible. Models have been going back and forth with where to place the axis of heaviest rain. This is because of a tropical system located in the Gulf of Mexico. Right now it appears most of the heaviest rain will fall across central to southern Illinois. We are continuing to monitor the latest trends in the models as changes are possible.

Latest WPC rainfall over the next 7 days – most of this falling late Thursday into Friday:

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The extended forecast looks dry heading into Saturday with only slight chances for showers and storms in the early morning; otherwise the cold front is expected to clear the area by Saturday afternoon.

Look for improving conditions through Sunday and to start next week. Temperatures are expected to be much cooler with highs in the low 80’s Saturday through Monday.

Below normal temperatures expected across the Midwest by Sunday:

eps

Mt Pleasant Forecast:

Today no real threat for precipitation are in the forecast. I expect mainly dry weather with partly sunny skies today with temperatures in the low 90’s.

sfc_temps

Looks like a mostly dry pattern heading into Thursday with only isolated storm chances. Better chances will arrive Thursday night into Friday morning. The latest computer models bring showers and thunderstorms into the area primarily after midnight. I expect showers and storms to increase in coverage through Friday morning.

Latest RPM 3 AM CT Friday:

rpm

Depending on the speed of the cold front will determine the duration of the showers and storms into Friday afternoon. Right now, it looks like showers and storms will be around through mid-day with decreasing coverage into the afternoon hours.

Widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time. However, it’s not impossible for a few strong storms to bring some gusty winds. The main threat will be heavy rain.

Rainfall amounts with this system will be in the range of 0.50” to 1.00” with locally higher amounts are possible. Models have been going back and forth with where to place the axis of heaviest rain. This is because of a tropical system located in the Gulf of Mexico. Right now it appears most of the heavy rain looks to fall south of the Mount Pleasant area through this weekend.

Latest WPC rainfall over the next 7 days – most of this falling late Thursday into Friday:

precip

The extended forecast looks dry heading into Saturday with only slight chances for showers and storms in the early morning; otherwise the cold front is expected to clear the area by Saturday afternoon.

Look for improving conditions through Sunday and to start next week. Temperatures will are expected to be much cooler with highs in the low 80’s Saturday through Monday.

Below normal temperatures expected across the Midwest by Sunday:

850

Michael is out of the office for the rest of week.  I have Jon and JT available if you have any questions.

Thanks 

Bryan Kilgore