Rain and storms continue moving across Indiana this morning. These rain and storms will spread into Ohio after lunchtime today. Coverage does look to increase through the afternoon across both zones 1 and 5.
Storms will remain possible tomorrow as an upper-level trough and front move closer to the forecast zones. With high amounts of instability and moisture in place, strong to severe storms will be possible. Right now the greatest risk looks to be across northeastern Illinois, northern Indiana, and southern Michigan. However, it does look like this will be more of a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) or cluster of storms. These can be tough to predict more than just a few hours out, so the main severe weather threat could shift. The main severe risks Wednesday will be damaging winds and hail. However, a couple of tornadoes can’t be ruled out.
With copious amounts of moisture available to storms, heavy rainfall will be likely. The HRRR model has localized areas of 2-3” of rain through 11 PM this evening and with a saturated environment, those kinds of totals are not out of the question.
Once this system moves through fully on Thursday an area of high pressure will build into end the work week. This will offer us some relief from the heat across the forecast area.
(MCS) Mesoscale Convective System. A complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms, and normally persists for several hours or more. MCSs may be round or linear in shape, and include systems such as tropical cyclones, squall lines, and Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs) (among others). MCS often is used to describe a cluster of thunderstorms that does not satisfy the size, shape, or duration criteria of an Mesoscale Convective Complex.