AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT: Sunny to mostly sunny skies remain in place across zones 1 and 5 this morning. However, to the north a cold front in moving closer to the forecast area allowing clouds and rain chances to increase through the afternoon and evening.
Through the afternoon the aforementioned cold front will be dropping south across the forecast area. By 2-3 PM scattered areas of rain and a few t’storms will be developing across very northern portions of zone 1 in Indiana and Ohio.
Through the evening the cold front will continue to progress south across Indiana and Ohio. By 5-6 PM isolated to scattered areas of rain and storms will be developing along the front across western Ohio and eastern Indiana with some ongoing rain across zone 1.
Through the evening more rain and storms will develop along the front. The NAM 4 km does show more of a solid line of storms this evening by 7-8 PM. However, I think these will likely be a line of broken areas of rain and storms with perhaps some longer lines mixed in. it does look like better timing for rain to arrive in Cincinnati will be around 6-7 PM this evening.
Through the evening the front and attendant storms will be moving to the south and southeast. By 10-11 PM the main area of rain will be out of the forecast zones. However, with energy moving through at 500 mb, isolated to widely scattered areas of rain will remain possible.
While a few storms could be strong this evening I think any severe storms will be very limited thanks to low-end moisture and instability. However, winds aloft will be pretty strong with 500 mb winds from the west at 55-65 mph and 850 winds from the west at 35-45 mph it will likely prove to be enough to get some gusty t’storms going this evening with perhaps a severe weather warning or two.
Temperatures this evening aloft will be very cold as well. With that in mind, some hail can’t be completely ruled out across zones 1 and 5 with the better developed t’storms.
Overnight upper-level energy will stick around the forecast area. Thanks to this energy isolated to widely scattered areas of rain will stick around as well.
Lows tonight will be in the mid 50’s north to mid 60’s south.
TUESDAY: The upper-level trough and attendant energy will continue to swing through zones 1 and 5 on Tuesday morning. It does look like by 7-8 AM a stronger area of vorticity will be moving across Indiana. This may help organize a more concentrated cluster of rain/storms early in the morning along and ahead of the max. However, the key will be where exactly this vorticity max ends up, so just keep in mind it will be something to watch out for Tuesday morning.
Through the morning into the afternoon on Tuesday the upper-level energy will be moving out of the forecast area. This will allow the majority of the precipitation to come to an end across western and central Indiana with better chances lingering east across eastern Indiana/Ohio.
Through the afternoon and evening more sunshine will get through across western Indiana with more of a clouds/sun mix farther east. By 3-5 PM Tuesday evening many places will be dry across Indiana and Ohio. However, some isolated to widely scattered showers can’t be ruled out across southeastern Indiana and into Ohio, mainly south of I-70.
Highs on Tuesday will be cooler with temperatures in the upper 60’s north to mid 70’s south. Winds will be from the northwest at 10-20 mph.
Tuesday night high pressure will take control and skies will clear. This will set-up for a cool overnight with lows in the low to upper 50’s!
WEDNESDAY: High pressure will remain in control of the weather on Wednesday. This will allow for dry, sunny conditions to continue mid-week.
However, with the upper-level trough in place on Wednesday temperatures will remain cool with highs in the upper 60’s north to mid 70’s south.
THURSDAY – FRIDAY: The upper-level trough will begin to break down and eject off to the east of the forecast area on Thursday. This will allow for an upper-level ridge, and subsequently, warmer temperatures, to start to build into zones 1 and 5.
While I do think there will be plenty of sunshine across the forecast area on Thursday, a warm front will likely bring at least some clouds and a slight chance for rain/storms later in the evening.
By 7-8 PM the warm front will be lifting through the forecast zones. The lift along the front will likely be enough to spark a couple of areas of afternoon rain and storms. However, coverage does not look that impressive at this time, with many areas remaining dry.
High on Thursday will moderate a little with temperatures in the mid 70’s east to mid 80’s west.
On Friday the upper-level ridge will continue to expand to the north and east. This will allow for very warm and very humid air to surge into Indiana and Ohio by late in the week.
Highs on Friday will warm into the upper 80’s to low 90’s!
Rain and thunderstorm chances will be minimal to end the week. However, with a very hot and humid air mass in place over zones 1 and 5, afternoon pulse t’storms will be possible.
New rainfall forecasts through the end of the week per forecast models are under .20” in many locations with a bit more across eastern Indiana and Ohio. While the models average around .10” of new rainfall I think it will be just that, the average.
I say that because while some places will see no rainfall, places that do get under a couple of areas of rain or a heavier t’storm will see locally more than .20”.
WEEKEND: Hot and Humid conditions will remain in place on Saturday as the upper-level ridge remains in place.
Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 80’s to mid 90’s across the forecast area!
Sunday will be another hot day with highs in the mid 80’s to mid 90’s. However, there will be a cold front moving in from the north. This looks to bring much cooler temperatures in behind it. Depending on the timing/location of the front on Sunday temperatures may need either increased or decreased, along with the overall chances for rain.
We will have to fine-tune the forecast for Sunday as we get closer to the forecast period.