Zone/Commercial detailed short term forecast. Heavy rain Saturday but exact track of rain will need fine tuned in later updates. Big cool blast coming too.
Updated 7 day forecasts click here!
Forecasted total rains by Sunday evening via the latest GFS and NAM computer runs.
Heavy rains make sense to us Saturday given the 850mb winds aka the low level jet winds intersect with the front in the area. This usually yields heavy rain potential. PWAT values are also in the 1.6″ to 2.0″ range. This can lead to locally heavy rain of 1.5 to even 3″ in some spots Saturday. The yellow lines are 850mb wind flow in relation to the front and as you can see they are intersecting.
Once this front comes through we are left on a NW flow aloft. This is a classic summertime precip pattern that can produce T’storms pretty much everyday. The ECMWF shows a stout vort max on a NW flow next Tues night. This needs to be watched for a damaging cluster of storms known as an MCS perhaps.
Another big story next week will be the cooler temps and lower humidity values. Details on that are in the video forecast below.