Just some of my thoughts out loud tonight. First off a bigger weather vendor continues to talk about below normal tornado season..I think after the next 2-3 weeks that tune will be changing. 50+ tornadoes have been reported in the last 3 days and we are far from over. Its going to be busy as promised as we get into June. Meteorologist Joseph Cooper talked about this back in March in his severe weather outlook. June could be another active severe weather month. So while the average tornado count YTD is down right now it will take some big leaps up next few weeks.
Overall the pattern is hot the next 7 days no denying that. However we have been talking about a rather big pattern reversal back to normal or even cooler than normal into first week of June and beyond for quite awhile now. Here is where the biggest departures from normal will be in general over next 7 days. Upper 80s and even a 90 or 2 is possible. Worth mention the scattered storm threat next 7 days is just that SCATTERED. An isolated severe threat each day wouldn’t shock me but looks low end right now.
Its beyond June 1st in-fact ~3rd of June when we look for the heat ridge over the east to migrate back to the Pacific NW with an attendant storm/sever threat perhaps. With the combination of the -NAO developing (Greenland block) a cooler regime looms as we close out week 1 of June and get into weeks 2 and 3. Overall with the +PNA look the pattern undoubtedly will remain active well into mid June I do believe. The idea has been talked about for awhile now based of the BSR and now the GEFS/EPS and ESRL data is agreeing..a lot of folks will start to change their tune soon for June I believe..see what I did there? 🙂
As we look at now and out the next 2 weeks the active stormy pattern doesn’t change much, the latest GFS op and its ensemble forecast from normal rains next 2.5 weeks agrees too.
Does this +PNA look hold? I dont think so..it comes and goes IMO right now. I think we continue to see a train of Omega like blocks come and go. Aka ridge/trough/ridge/trough. Cool/warm/cool/warm. Dry/stormy/dry/stormy. Get my drift yet? Take June 9th for example..note the ridge in central plains..
Now look at the monster storm break down this ridge from the 11th to the 13th of June. IMO this is another multi-day severe weather outbreak much like what we are dealing with now. A trough that breaks down the ridge! Rinse and repeat friends!
Pretty cool huh? Ill have more tomorrow. But lets remember some of these bigger vendors trashing the GEFS and how its too cool into June..because it very well is prob right and now the EURO is catching on! Tomorrow ill share what I have found for June/July/August forecasts and how the BSR is playing a role in my thoughts! M.