Dry spell short lived. Very active pattern w/severe wx next week. Long range talk. #AGwx #Plant16

Home / Uncategorized / Dry spell short lived. Very active pattern w/severe wx next week. Long range talk. #AGwx #Plant16

Good Saturday afternoon all! So this week I decided I shared too much free information on social media so from now one starting today and each day forward I will be sharing data and thoughts on here in a blog format so just look for the link tweeted and login and check it out! I want to continue to add value to the service for zone and commercial clients so if you have any ideas please share them with me! My #1 goal has and always will be weather related truth..quality content and ACCURACY. We don’t have an agenda and never will. We just call the weather like we see it. So with that being said lets discuss data today!

Dry spell continues now until Tuesday evening for much of the Midwest and Ohio Valley we know that to be true because an upper level ridge parks over the central US. The Omega block look should look familiar too I talked about it being the normal 3 weeks ago. 

OMEGEA BLOCK
OMEGEA BLOCK

That ridge will move east and behind it is a trough that will bring SEVERAL storm chances into the corn belt regions Wednesday through next Sunday. Multiple severe weather days are likely including here in the Ohio valley Wednesday and Thursday right now. This is the long advertised May 26th system we have discussed for weeks now. 

BATTLE ZONE SETS UP FOR CENTRAL US NEXT WEEK.
BATTLE ZONE SETS UP FOR CENTRAL US NEXT WEEK.
SEVERE THREAT HERE WED/THURS!
SEVERE THREAT HERE WED/THURS!

That trough that brings the severe weather will eventually come east and allow for 1. A stormy race day forecast and 2 a cooler than normal start to June with above average confidence in that idea right now. Thats why the long range EURO model is wrong..so all these social media accounts who swear by the EURO with a heat wave to open June..big busts coming for them I do believe. 

EURO INCORRECT WEEK 1 OF JUNE.
EURO INCORRECT WEEK 1 OF JUNE.

What is correct is our organic forecast methods and they show the chill in the air compared to normal for the 1st 2 weeks of June. BSR agrees too. 

Screen Shot 2016-05-21 at 4.52.57 PM
JUNE 1ST-5TH TEMPS
Screen Shot 2016-05-21 at 4.52.53 PM
JUNE 6TH-10TH TEMPS
Screen Shot 2016-05-21 at 4.52.44 PM
JUNE 11TH-15TH TEMPS

That idea is now also starting to be shown in the tele-connections forecast from the ESRL site. When the PNA/NAO/EPO do what they are doing here it promotes and eastern US trough aka cooler and wetter than normal first 2 weeks of June looks to be the trend right now both from the BSR and now some data too…

+PNA,-NAO,-EPO
+PNA,-NAO,-EPO

Hence the above normal 2 week rainfall numbers from morning ensemble data too. 

Screen Shot 2016-05-21 at 4.34.26 PM Screen Shot 2016-05-21 at 4.34.53 PM

If this type of pattern continues it may be difficult for Summer to show up in the month of June and we already have data hinting at that. Look at the week 3 and 4 forecast from the CFSv2 for precip. Both again above normal.

WEEK 3/4 PRECIP FORECAST.
WEEK 3/4 PRECIP FORECAST.

Look at the early EXCAM model idea for June temps..looking normal to even cooler than normal POSSIBLY. Im suspect of any real heat right now for June..esp where soil moisture remains high due to rains. The wet soils will make mid 80s+ hard to achieve IMO.

JUNE TEMPS EXCAM MODEL.
JUNE TEMPS EXCAM MODEL.

You’re probably wondering if this pattern will ever break..well not as far as the eye can see it will not. Look at where precip has fallen consistently over the last 90 days..I believe this to be the Summer theme honestly.

Screen Shot 2016-05-21 at 4.47.49 PM

Latest CFSv2 45 day rainfall forecast shows more and more of the same folks. I would look for a very active next 4-6 weeks. HEY TELL YOUR FRIENDS ABOUT WHAT WE DO..TELL THEM TO SIGN UP!

Have a nice evening! M. 

Screen Shot 2016-05-21 at 4.39.21 PM