Zones 1 & 5 Fri. Forecast: Rain Moving In, Some Will Be Heavy Tonight, Rain Ends Sat., Very Nice Sun/Mon.! JT.

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT: An upper-level trough continues to move into the forecast area this morning. This has spread clouds and some areas of rain out ahead of it. As the trough continues to work in rain chances will continue and increase through the day.

NOW

The rain to the southwest across zone 5 is working northeast. This will take a little bit of time to spread farther north because the environment is drier to the northeast. However, through the morning into early afternoon the environment will become saturated and rain will make it to the ground. Rain looks to arrive in the Indianapolis area around 2-3 PM and around the Cincinnati area around 4 PM.

3pm

Through the evening rain will continue to the north and northeast. By 5-6 PM a lull in rain looks to be occurring across southwestern Indiana. However, farther north across zone 1 then east into eastern Indiana and western Ohio, rain and perhaps an isolated storm will still be ongoing. Some of this rain across southeast Indiana and into Ohio does look to be heavy at times.

6PM

Through the evening the more concentrated rain looks to be in place from the I-70 corridor north and across eastern Indiana, with another area of concentrated and heavier rain across southern Ohio. Father south across southern zone 1 and zone 5 more isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible.

11PM

Through the overnight the upper-level trough of low pressure will continue to spin over the top of the forecast region. While overall coverage and intensity will decrease, scattered areas of rain will remain across all areas of zones 1 and 5.

TONIGHT500

Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50’s.

SATURDAY: By the early morning hours on Saturday pieces of energy will still be circulating around the upper-level trough. This will allow rain showers to continue Saturday morning. By 8-9 AM scattered areas of rain will be ongoing.

SAT9AM

Through the morning into the early afternoon Saturday the upper-level trough will move off to the regions east. As it does, it will take the energy needed to support any rain with it. As a result, showers will start to thin out across the forecast area. By 12-1 PM Saturday afternoon, only some light showers will remain across southern Indiana.

SAT1PM

Through the afternoon a few isolated showers will remain possible. However, behind the trough an area of high pressure will move into the forecast area. With the high pressure will come drier air. This will work into the region through the day. As it does, it will limit rain chances and allow for some of the clouds to clear, especially through the afternoon and evening.

Highs on Saturday will be in the mid 60’s east to low 70’s west. Winds will be a bit breezy at times with wind gusts of 20-25 mph possible.

SATPANEL

New rainfall totals look to differ pretty substantially across the forecast area. Across most of Indiana new rainfall totals will be around .15-.35”. However, if a couple location’s get under a t’storm or heavy pocket of rain, some isolated pockets of .75-1.10” will be possible locally.

 

NAM 4 KM
NAM 4 KM

Across southeastern/eastern Indiana along the state line, then into Ohio more widespread heavy rain looks likely. It looks like many places in that area will get .50-1” of new rainfall. However, models are very consistent with a heavy band of rainfall occurring around the IN/KY state line then northeast close to, or through, Cincinnati then points northeast. The NAM 4 km model is extremely aggressive with new rainfall showing some locations of 4-5” occurring. However, the NAM 12 km seems more reasonable with totals, showing 2-3” of new rainfall along the Ohio River and into Cincinnati.

NAM 12 KM
NAM 12 KM

Overall, this will likely be a nowcast situation. So if you are in southeastern Indiana and southern Ohio make sure to check our social media and your e-mails for any new information.   

Saturday night into Sunday the high pressure will continue to work into the forecast area. This will allow skies to further clear giving way to mostly clear conditions.

Lows will be in the mid 40’s north to around 50 south.

SUNDAY: High pressure will be firmly in control of the weather on Sunday. This will allow sunny skies and warmer temperatures to overspread zones 1 and 5.

SUN

Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 70’s.

SUNPANEL

MONDAY: The area of high pressure will work off to the east, but it’s impacts will still be felt and seen. Sunny to mostly sunny skies will remain through the day with no precipitation forecast.

At the upper-levels a ridge of high pressure will be building into the forecast area. This will allow for winds to shift out of the south. As the winds shift, it will transport warm, moist air into the region next week.

gfs_z500_mslp_us_16

Highs on Monday will be in the low to upper 70’s.

MONPANEL

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Beyond the start of next week the weather will turn more “active” across the region. I used the quotes because, while storm chances will be around most days, they will only be afternoon chances of around 20-30% most of the time.

While Tuesday may be quiet across zones 1 and 5 I won’t totally rule out a t’storm in the afternoon. There will be a disturbance moving through the forecast region. For now, the “better” chances for isolated storms look to be in Illinois. However, we are still several days out so timing and location could change.

Highs on Tuesday will remain warm with temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80.

Wednesday a low pressure system will move to the north of the forecast area brining a cold front across the forecast zones. Rain and t’storms will be possible along the front during the afternoon hours. Right now we are still some ways out from this, so timing/impacts/coverage will all need fine-tuned as we get closer to the forecast period. However, I will not be shocked if strong to severe storms do occur.

WED

LONG-RANGE (END OF NEXT WEEK): An active pattern will continue across the forecast region, and really the CONUS, through the end of next week. This will be as a series of upper-level impulses comes on board and moves across the Great Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes region.

500GIF

The good news is, with the troughieness out west it will keep warmer temperatures in the forecast across the Midwest.