AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT: An upper-level trough continues to work its way into the region this morning. With it clouds and rain have moved into the zone forecast area. This trough will keep rain chances in the forecast throughout the rest of the daytime hours today.
As the greatest upper-level energy continues to the north and north-east today, the rain currently in place across Illinois will follow. By 12-1 PM scattered areas of rain will still be ongoing, especially across zone 7 with some dry time moving in across zone 6.
Through the afternoon and into the evening the upper-level trough will remain in place over the forecast region. This will allow for isolated to scattered areas of rain to continue, by 4-5 PM a lot of places will be dry, but there will be some of those pockets of rain remaining.
Through the evening shower activity will likely decrease across at least southern/central zone 6. However, farther north across northern zone 6 and zone 7 more upper-level energy will be in place. This will allow for at least some isolated pockets or rainfall to continue. By 10-11 PM the models do depict the best chances for the rain across zone 7.
The upper-level trough of low pressure will be rather slow to move out of the region and will stick around through late into the overnight. This will provide the upward momentum needed to support scattered showers across the more northern/eastern portions of the forecast area.
Lows overnight will be in the 50’s.
SATURDAY: By 7-8 AM Saturday morning the trough will be starting to move east of zones 6 and 7, loosening its impacts on the weather locally. However, as it moves east pieces of upper-level energy will circulate around the trough. This will bring showers southward across both zones 7 and 6 Saturday morning.
By lunchtime on Saturday the showers will begin to fade out as the trough and the associated energy moves off to the east of the forecast area. Behind it high pressure will eagerly work in, spreading drier air throughout the atmospheric profile. This will result in cloud erosion and clearing throughout the late morning and into the afternoon, so I do expect sunshine across the forecast area on Saturday.
Through the evening skies will continue to clear across Illinois giving way to afternoon sunshine. By 4-5 PM Saturday evening quite a bit of sunshine looks to be getting through across zones 6 and 7.
Highs on Saturday will be pretty nice with temperatures in the upper 60’s to low 70’s. Winds tomorrow could be a little breezy at times with northerly gusts of 20-25 mph possible.
New rainfall totals through Saturday evening will average out around .10-.30” across the area. However, the farther north you go the more likely you will be to only be on the low-end of that. However, across southern zone 6 I won’t rule out some areas of .50” or so.
Saturday night into Sunday high pressure will remain in place. Skies will remain clear to mostly clear through the overnight.
Lows Saturday night will be in the upper 40’s north to low 50’s south.
SUNDAY: High pressure will be in place right over the region on Sunday. With the dry, sinking air that will be associated with the high, it will be a sunny day across zones 6 and 7.
Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 70’s on Sunday.
MONDAY: Sunday night into Monday the upper-level ridge will start to pump up across the Midwest. As it does, it will allow for a return to a more southerly flow of air. This will start to transport more heat and moisture into the environment for next week.
The area of surface high pressure will be moving off to the east on Monday. However, we will still be seeing it’s impact across the forecast zones as sunny to mostly sunny skies will remain in the forecast.
Highs on Monday will start to warm thanks to the aforementioned upper-level ridge. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70’s to around 80 in locations!
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Beyond the start of next week the weather will turn more “active” across the region. I used the quotes because, while storm chances will be around most days, they will only be afternoon chances of around 20-30% most of the time.
Tuesday will be one of those examples. While we will not have any significant frontal systems in place, but a disturbance will be moving through.
This disturbance coupled with afternoon heating/instability and moisture will likely prove enough for some isolated t’storms to develop.
Highs on Tuesday will remain warm with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80’s.
Wednesday a low pressure system will move to the north of the forecast area brining a cold front across the forecast zones. Rain and t’storms will be possible along the front during the afternoon hours. Right now we are still some ways out from this, so timing/impacts/coverage will all need fine-tuned as we get closer to the forecast period. However, I will not be shocked if strong to severe storms do occur.
LONG-RANGE (END OF NEXT WEEK): An active pattern will continue across the forecast region, and really the CONUS, through the end of next week. This will be as a series of upper-level impulses comes on board and moves across the Great Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes region.
The good news is, with the troughieness out west it will keep warmer temperatures in the forecast across the Midwest.