Good Friday afternoon all! So this week I decided I shared too much free information on social media so from now one starting today and each day forward I will be sharing data and thoughts on here in a blog format so just look for the link tweeted and login and check it out! I want to continue to add value to the service for zone and commercial clients so if you have any ideas please share them with me! My #1 goal has and always will be weather related truth..quality content and ACCURACY. We don’t have an agenda and never will. We just call the weather like we see it. So with that being said lets discuss data today!
We know this weekend and first part of next week is dry compared to what we have been use to. Set aside rain tonight and the forecast Saturday afternoon and into next Tuesday evening looks like this for total rainfall so again not terrible and a needed dry break.
Looking ahead to next week I spoke about this in the premium video but an eastern US ridge develops which means a western US trough..which means a constant flow of energy and severe storms for central plains and Ohio valley starting next Tuesday and beyond. You can see the lower heights running into the higher heights on the 500mb charts. You can also see the pieces of vorticity in the SW flow from the plains to the Ohio valley. I would anticipate multiple days of severe weather and even tornadoes next week esp in the central plains..this type of activity looks to linger into the 1st week of June also esp when we look out into whats happening in the Bering Sea and western Pacific ocean.
This setup is reflected well with the tele-connections forecast in the short term..and then the change happens where the PNA goes POSITIVE..so actually the pattern remains stormy as far as they eye can see right now. A POSITIVE PNA means a ridge NW and a trough east aka lower pressure and rain chances along with cooler temps to open up June we believe.
Overall the trend this morning has been aggressive with 2.5 week rainfall totals from the GFS operational model and its ensemble mean package.
Beyond the 2 week period the latest CFS weeklies are in and every now and then we do agree with them. Weeks 3 and 4 both look like normal to above normal rainfall.
Also quick tout on La Nina..we still think the impacts will not start being felt until August and beyond. VERY EARLY and I mean VERY EARLY thoughts could be for a cold and snowy Winter. Its something that we certainly need to consider.
Just looking at all of this its pretty much a rinse and repeat pattern that looks to continue well into June. Any claim of any kind of drought developing for the corn belt needs to be taken with a grain of salt because at this rate I’m starting to wonder if it can even turn “abnormally dry”. Have a great Friday evening my friends! M.