Zone 6 & 7 Thu. Forecast: Clouds Increase Today, Some Rain Friday, Very Nice Weekend Ahead! JT.

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT: High pressure remains in control of the weather this morning, this has allowed clear to mostly clear skies to continue across zones 6 and 7.

CURRENT

Mostly sunny skies will continue across the area through mid-day. However, by early to mid-afternoon clouds will beginning streaming in from the west and southwest. While it will not be completely overcast, broken clouds will persist through the evening, thickening up as time goes on.

2PMIL

Through the overnight clouds will continue to thicken up ahead of an east/northeasterly advancing storm system. I do expect mostly cloudy conditions through the overnight. While a few showers can’t be ruled out after 3-4 AM, most of the rain will hold off until Friday.

FRI4AM

Lows overnight will be in the low 50’s north to upper 50’s south.

FRIDAY: A pesky upper-level trough will start to progress across the forecast region on Friday. As it does rain and even a couple t’storms will move across the area. By 7-8 AM only a few isolated light rain showers will be in place across zones 6 and 7. So the morning commute to work on Friday looks mostly dry.

fritrough

By 12-1 PM Friday afternoon some isolated showers will remain possible across zones 6 and 7, with perhaps a better chance of widely scattered showers across very southern zone 6.

FRI1PM

Through the afternoon pieces of energy will be moving through the flow aloft as the 500 mb trough moves through the region. These will provide enough lift locally to allow some isolated rain and a couple t’storms to develop across zones 6 and 7 through the afternoon.

By 4-5 PM the isolated rain showers and a couple t’storms will be continuing to develop. With the air aloft so cold, any storms that could get going would have the potential for some hail.

FRI5PM

Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 60’s.

FRIPANEL

The trough will be slow to exit the region and a small area of upper-level energy will continue to move across the region through the evening. With this in mind isolated showers and a storm will remain possible across zones 6 and 7 through the evening. By 9-10 PMa couple areas of rain can still be seen ongoing via the NAM model.

FRI10PM

Friday evening into the overnight we will lose some of the coverage and intensity of rain. This will be as the trough moves farther east out of the forecast area. We also will be losing daytime heating/instability, so pockets of rain and storms will lose their steam once that is taken away. By 1-2 AM Saturday morning only a few isolated showers remain.

New rainfall totals will be pretty minimal with perhaps .10-.20” of new rainfall across zone 6 with less north. Localized places that do get under a thunderstorm could see .25-.50” of new rainfall, but these look to be extremely localized.

RAIN

Lows Friday night into Saturday will be in the upper 40’s north to mid 50’s south.

SATURDAY: As the upper-level trough moves off to the east late Friday into Saturday morning an area of surface high pressure will build in behind it. With the high pressure system drier air will work in, this will help clouds erode Saturday morning across zones 6 and 7.

SATHIGH

The morning clouds will continue to erode on Saturday and sunshine will start to get through. While I would call for mostly sunny skies Saturday, there is a very weak disturbance that looks to move through by later in the afternoon. While this won’t create any rain, I do think it will help some clouds to form as it moves across the region.

Overall, Saturday looks to be a nice day with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s.

SATPANEL

SUNDAY: Sunday looks to be another very nice day as an area of high pressure will move over the top of the region. This high pressure system will be in firm control of the weather to end the weekend.

SUN

This area of high pressure will lead to warm temperatures, light winds, and lots of sunshine for Sunday. Highs will be in the low 70’s north to mid 70’s south.

SUNPAN

MONDAY-TUESDAY: An upper-level ridge will start to build into the forecast region Sunday night into Monday. This ridge will help reinforce dry, sunny conditions to start the week. However, it will also allow a more southerly flow of air to return to the Midwest.

500GIF

This southerly flow of air will transport even warmer temperatures into the region to start next week! Highs on Monday will be in the mid 70’s to low 80’s!

Monday into Tuesday the area of high pressure will move off to the east of the region. As it does, a bit of an upper-level disturbance will move quickly through the area on Tuesday.

TUES

With a warm, humid air mass in place the upper-level disturbance will prove enough to get some scattered areas of rain and storms going through the afternoon hours Tuesday. The models are in pretty good agreement with that occurring, however we will fine-tune specifics and impacts in the coming days.

Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 70’s to low 80’s.