Zone 1 & 5 Thu. Forecast: Nice Today, Rain Moves In Fri. Into Sat., Very Nice Sunday Into Next Week! JT.

Home / Uncategorized / Zone 1 & 5 Thu. Forecast: Nice Today, Rain Moves In Fri. Into Sat., Very Nice Sunday Into Next Week! JT.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT: The area of high pressure that brought very nice conditions across the forecast area on Wednesday remains in place across zones 1 and 5 today. This has resulted in dry, sunny skies across the region.

NW

Through the day sunny to mostly sunny conditions will continue across both zones 1 and 5. However, later this afternoon into the evening some clouds will start to move into western Indiana ahead of an approaching weather system.

10 PM
10 PM

Through the evening and into the overnight clouds will continue to stream in across Indiana and Ohio. However, the overnight hours tonight will be dry across the forecast area.

Lows will be in the low 50’s north to mid 50’s south.

FRIDAY: An upper-level trough will move into, and through, the forecast zones during the day on Friday. While it will not be all that impressive, with some pieces of energy associated with the trough some scattered areas of rain and perhaps an isolated storm will be possible.

fritrough

The morning commute looks to be pretty dry with only some very isolated showers possible. Those will likely be restricted to southern Indiana in zone 5.

FRI8AM

Through morning into 1 PM some isolated showers will remain possible in southern Indiana and southern Ohio. I don’t think these will be real widespread or heavy, just kind of pesky.

FRI 1PM

Through the afternoon on Friday we will gain some instability as greater temperature contrast occurs vertically from the surface upwards. This will help more scattered areas of rain and possibly an isolated storm or two. By 5-6 PM Friday afternoon precipitation will be on the increase across the area, especially across southern Indiana and Ohio.  

FRI6PM

Through the evening scattered rain and some storms will remain possible across both zones 1 and 5. Some periods of more moderate to heavy rain aren’t out of the question. With temperatures aloft being very cold, some hail can’t be totally ruled out Friday evening.

FRI10 PM

High on Friday will be in the low to mid 60’s.

FRIPANEL

Friday evening into the overnight some isolated to scattered areas of rain will remain. The NAM model shows some rain remaining through the overnight. I will say, I am leaning on the side of caution because I think this may be a bit overdone with coverage and intensity. By 1-2 AM areas of rain will continue moving across the forecast area.

SAT2AM

Through the overnight some showers will remain possible across both Indiana and Ohio.

Lows will be in the low 50’s north to mid 50’s south.

SATURDAY: Some showers will remain possible early in the day on Saturday with the trough still in the vicinity of the region.

SAT8AM

Through the day the upper-level trough will be moving off to the forecast areas east. However, with some small areas of vorticity and cold temperatures aloft, showers will remain possible through the day on Saturday. I do think eastern/southern Indiana and Ohio will have better chances as seeing those showers on Saturday.

SAT5PM

With that being said, I don’t think Saturday will be a washout by any means, the showers will be isolated to widely scattered at best. In fact, I think we will see a mix of clouds and sun, so it shouldn’t be a bad day overall.

Highs on Saturday will be in the low 60’s to near 70.

SATPANEL

Through the evening on Saturday some showers will remain. By 7-8 PM most will be fading out across the forecast zones.

Saturday evening into the overnight the trough will move to the east and an area of high pressure will build in. This will bring any remaining showers to an end.

Lows Saturday night into Sunday will be in the mid 40’s north to mid 50’s south.

The better chances of rainfall through Saturday evening will be mainly from I-70 southward where .20-.50” will be most common. However, closer to the Ohio river where heavier rain looks to occur .75-1.25” will not be out of the question in some localized areas.

NAM12

NAM4

SUNDAY: High pressure will be in control of the weather across zones 1 and 5 on Sunday. This will create dry conditions with sunny skies across Indiana and Ohio!

SUN

Temperatures on Sunday will warm into the low to mid 70’s for highs!

SUNPAN

MONDAY-TUESDAY: An upper-level ridge will start to build into the forecast region Sunday night into Monday. This ridge will help reinforce dry, sunny conditions to start the week. However, it will also allow a more southerly flow of air to return to the Midwest.

500GIF

This southerly flow of air will transport even warmer temperatures into the region to start next week! Highs on Monday will be in the mid 70’s to low 80’s!

Monday into Tuesday the area of high pressure will move off to the east of the region. As it does, a bit of an upper-level disturbance will move quickly through the area on Tuesday.

With a warm, humid air mass in place the upper-level disturbance will prove enough to get some scattered areas of rain and storms going through the afternoon hours Tuesday. The models are in pretty good agreement with that occurring, however we will fine-tune specifics and impacts in the coming days.

TUES

Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 70’s to low 80’s.