Zones 6 & 7 Tue. Forecast: Rain Ends Tonight, Drier Wed/Thu, More Rain Poss. Friday, Warmer Next Week? JT.

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FORECAST DISCUSSION 

AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT: Rain continues to fall across zones 6 and 7 this morning. This rain is thanks to a warm front in place south of the region.

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Through the day scattered areas of rain will continue moving eastward across both zones. By 12-1 PM this afternoon scattered areas of rain will continue to be ongoing across zones 6 and 7.

1pm

Through the afternoon an area of low pressure will move to the south of the forecast region. While this may allow a better push of rain to move in through the afternoon, I do remain a bit skeptical because models have been overly aggressive with precipitation lately. By 4-5 PM Scattered areas of rain will be ongoing across zones 6 and 7.

5pm

Through the evening rain showers will start to move out of the area. A secondary area of some scattered showers will be moving in from the north. These will form along a wind shift associated with an area of high pressure that will be moving in from the north. By 7-8 PM rain coverage will be decreasing across the forecast area.

8pm

Through the overnight high pressure will build into the region from the north. This will allow some dry air to work into the region. So as we lose daytime heating and see moisture start to decrease, rain chances will decrease through the overnight with only a stray light shower possible.

New rainfall totals through the overnight will average around .60-1”. However, it does look like some localized areas across zone 6 could see 1.4-1.6” of new rainfall through late tonight/early Wednesday morning.

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RAP

 

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Lows overnight will be in the low 40’s north to around 50 south.

WEDNESDAY: High pressure will continue to work into the forecast zones on Wednesday morning. By 7-8 AM a couple isolated showers or light mist will still be possible.

Through the day dry air will continue to work its way through the environment. This will allow for any remaining precipitation to end and a mix of clouds and sun to continue.

WEDHGH

Highs on Wednesday will be in the low 60’s north to upper 60’s south.

WEDPAN

Wednesday night into Thursday skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy across zones 6 and 7. Lows overnight will be in the mid 40’s north to around 50 south.

THURSDAY: The area of high pressure will move off to the east throughout the day on Thursday. To the west/southwest another system will be developing and moving our way.

THU

Through the day a mix of sun clouds will remain possible. The good news is, with the area of high pressure remaining in control through the daytime hours, Thursday will be dry.

Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 60’s north to around 70 south.

THUPAN

Thursday night clouds will begin to thicken up ahead of an approaching storm system. Isolated rain showers will become possible across southern zone 6 after midnight and into early Friday morning.

Lows overnight Thursday will be in the low to mid 50’s.

FRIDAY: A few light showers will be possible to start the day on Friday, especially across southern zone 6.  

FRI8AM

Rain chances on Friday will be determined by the exact track of the area of low pressure. The farther south the low goes, the less chance of rain there will be.

FRI8PM

It currently looks like the heaviest rain will remain south of the forecast zones. However, models are not in good agreement with the placement, timing, or coverage of the rain just yet. We will continue to fine-tune these things as more data become available.

Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 60’s.

FRIPAN

WEEKEND: This weekend’s forecast remains a bit complicated, mainly because of model inconsistency. As we mentioned yesterday, a “cut off” low at 500 mb was forecast to remain over the region through most of the weekend.

This low would bring with it unsettled and cool weather.

GFS500GIF

While some model runs continue to favor this solution, others continue to allow the upper-level trough/low to exit somewhat quicker. This would result in a drier and warmer weekend.

While I will agree with the upper-level trough/low ejecting a bit quicker, I think clouds will likely hinder temperatures.

Highs will be in the 60’s Saturday with mid 60’s to low 70’s possible Sunday afternoon.

LONG-RANGE (NEXT WEEK): The upper-level trough will start to eject off to the east late in the weekend into early next week. Behind it an upper-level ridge of high pressure will start to build into the forecast region.

500HEIGHT NEXT WEEK

This ridge will allow drier and warmer conditions to start off next week.

7 DAY FORECAST ( TEMPERATURES WILL VARY GENERALLY WARMER SOUTH TO COOLER NORTH)

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