Zones 1 & 5 Tue. Forecast: Rain Continues This Evening, Drier Wed/Thu, Unsettled Fri., Warmer Next Week. JT.

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT: Clouds and scattered areas of rain continue to move across the forecast zones this morning. While none of these showers are heavy, some areas of more moderate rain are ongoing.

INNOW

Scattered areas of rain will continue moving across zones 1 and 5 in both Indiana and Ohio this afternoon. By 1-2 pm the NAM 4km shows those areas of rain still in place across the forecast zones.

2pm

By 5-6 PM rain will continue moving across Indiana and Ohio. A couple of areas of focus will be to the west where some better rain coverage will be moving in. To the north there will be a wind shift/boundary along the area of high pressure, along that boundary some more areas of rain will develop this evening as well.

6pm

Through the evening it does look like rain coverage will increase, especially from I-70 southward. By 10-11 pm the rain will be moving through Indiana and into Ohio.

11PM

Through the overnight the rain will continue moving off to the east and out of the forecast area. While most of the rain will be exiting, some showers will remain overnight, especially along the boundary/wind shift associated with the incoming high pressure system.

WED2AM

Lows overnight will be in the mid 40’s north to around 50 south.

New rainfall totals will be heaviest across zone 6 and perhaps southern zone 1 in Indiana where .40-.65” of new rain will be possible, especially farther west. However, average new rainfall through the overnight will be closer to .20-.40”.

HRRR
HRRR

 

RPM
RPM

WEDNESDAY: Wednesday morning an area of high pressure will be working into the forecast area from the north. However, the latest forecast soundings show a pretty saturated environment by 7-8 AM, especially across Indiana. This will lead to clouds and perhaps some light showers/mist early Wednesday morning.

nam_2016051712_024_39.77--86.15

Through the day high pressure will start to spread in along with drier air. While this should allow some sunshine to get through, there still will likely be some areas that are mostly cloudy while others are mostly sunny. For this reason, I will call for a mix of clouds and sunshine on Wednesday with perhaps a stray afternoon shower.

WEDHGH

Highs on Wednesday will be in the low to mid 60’s.

WEDPAN

Wednesday night skies will become mostly clear across the forecast zones. Lows overnight will fall into the low 40’s north to around 50 south.

THURSDAY: The area of high pressure will remain in control of the weather across zones 1 and 5 through the daytime hours on Thursday. This will allow for mostly sunny skies through late morning to early afternoon.

THU

Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 60’s north to low 70’s south.

THUPAN

A developing area of low pressure will be moving this way from the southwest by Thursday afternoon. As the low pushes this way clouds will be on the increase from south to north through the afternoon into the evening.

Thursday night clouds will overspread both zones from southwest to northeast. However, models are holding the precipitation off across Indiana and Ohio through the overnight, so dry conditions are expected.

FRIDAY: The area of low pressure will be moving closer to, then to the south of the forecast zones through the daytime hours on Friday. Depending on the exact track of the low pressure center rain chances could need increased or decreased.

The models are not in good agreement with low track/rainfall chances at all for Friday. The GFS brings in  some heavier rain and storms across southern Indiana and into Ohio through the day on Friday.

FRI8PM

However, the latest 12z NAM shows very little rain.

NAM

The EURO is a bit farther south than the GFS, but is right between the NAM and GFS with rainfall coverage/intensity. This is a forecast we will have to fine-tune in the coming days.

Highs on Friday will be dependent on rainfall. For right now we will call for highs in the upper 50’s to mid 60’s.

FRIPAN

WEEKEND: This weekend’s forecast remains a bit complicated, mainly because of model inconsistency. As we mentioned yesterday, a “cut off” low at 500 mb was forecast to remain over the region through most of the weekend.

This low would bring with it unsettled and cool weather.

While some model runs continue to favor this solution, others continue to allow the upper-level trough/low to exit somewhat quicker. This would result in a drier and warmer weekend.

GFS500GIF

While I will agree with the upper-level trough/low ejecting a bit quicker, I think clouds will likely hinder temperatures.

Highs will be in the 60’s Saturday with mid 60’s to low 70’s possible Sunday afternoon.

LONG-RANGE (NEXT WEEK): The upper-level trough will start to eject off to the east late in the weekend into early next week. Behind it an upper-level ridge of high pressure will start to build into the forecast region.

500HEIGHT NEXT WEEK

This ridge will allow drier and warmer conditions to start off next week.

7 DAY FORECAST (TEMPERATURES WILL VARY USUALLY WARMER SOUTH TO COOLER NORTH)

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