AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT: Sunny skies are in place across zones 1 and 5 as high pressure remains in control of the weather this morning.
Through the day a few clouds may develop across eastern Indiana and western Ohio, but most of the daytime hours will be sunny. However, by later this evening clouds will start to thicken up ahead of an approaching cold front.
By 10-11 PM some showers and possibly a couple of storms will be entering western and northwestern Indiana ahead of the incoming cold front.
Through the overnight the cold front will continue its trek to the southeast. Ahead of it some rain and storms will continue to push southeast, likely weakening as they do. The cold front and rain/storms will enter into the Indianapolis area around 1-2 am Saturday morning.
By 5-6 AM any remaining rain and storms will be pushing southeast across southeastern/southern Indiana and Ohio, likely entering the Cincinnati metro area around this time.
While I won’t totally rule out a couple strong to low-end severe storms this evening as the storms initially enter Indiana, I think most will be below severe limits. The atmosphere across zones 1 and 5 will not be very conducive for severe weather with little to no instability and very low moisture content.
SATURDAY: By 8-9 AM Saturday morning the front and associated rain will be exiting the forecast area to the east and southeast. Only a few showers look to linger behind the front.
New rainfall totals through early Saturday morning will be less than .25” in many locations. However, if some storms should hold together perhaps some localized areas of .50-.75” would be possible.
High pressure will build into the forecast area on Saturday. This will allow drier air to move into the forecast zones. However, clouds will remain throughout the day across most of the area with some clearing possible later into the evening around sunset.
With an area of upper-level vorticity moving through a few light showers can’t be totally ruled out, but these will be very isolated and very light in nature.
Highs on Saturday will be on the chilly side with temperatures only warming into the low 50’s north to around 60 south. Winds will be breezy at times with gusts of 20-30 mph possible.
Saturday night skies will clear out and winds will slack off. This will be a good recipe for cold temperatures as lows will fall into the mid 30’s north to around 40 south.
SUNDAY: An area of high pressure will remain in control of the weather on Sunday and should allow for sunny to mostly sunny skies across most areas.
However, at 500 mb there will be an upper-level disturbance moving through. This could prove enough to generate clouds and a few showers across zone 1 in Indiana and Ohio. However, I think these showers will be pretty isolated, so widespread rain is not anticipated.
Highs on Sunday will be a bit warmer since sunshine will get through. Temperatures will top out in the mid 50’s north to low 60’s south.
MONDAY: The area of high pressure will move off to the east on Monday. While sunshine may start the day clouds will increase from southwest to northeast across the region through the day.
The GFS model does show some rain moving into southern Indiana around 5 PM Monday evening.
Highs on Monday will be in the upper 50’s to mid 60’s.
Through the overnight Monday both the GFS and EURO are in agreement rain chances will increase across both zones 1 and 5 as the system moves closer to the region. We are still several days out from this system so rain totals, threats, and timing will need iron out as we get closer to the forecast period.
TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY: Rain and t’storm chances will continue through the day on Tuesday. This will be thanks to a stationary/warm front that will remain in the area. While the exact placement of the front will have to be fine-tuned, I won’t be shocked to see some localized areas of heavy rain next week where the front does stall out.
Both the GFS and the EURO are in pretty good agreement that high pressure will build in Tuesday night into Wednesday as the surface low moves away from the region taking the front with it.
As the high builds in through the day on Wednesday it would allow skies to clear and even bring the temperatures up a bit. Highs by mid next week are forecast to be back into the low 60’s to low 70’s.
LONG-RANGE: Farther into next week models are in pretty good consensus that the area of high pressure will slowly move to the east WED-FRI. Not only will it allow for drier conditions, but will also help moderate temperatures a bit every day.
7 DAY FORECAST (TEMPERATURES WILL VARY USUALLY COOLER NORTH TO WARMER SOUTH)