Zone 1 & 5 Thu. Forecast: Heavy Rain & Storms This Evening, Nicer Fri., More Rain & Storms Fri. Night, Cooler This Weekend. JT.

Home / Uncategorized / Zone 1 & 5 Thu. Forecast: Heavy Rain & Storms This Evening, Nicer Fri., More Rain & Storms Fri. Night, Cooler This Weekend. JT.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON-EVENING: A mix of sun and clouds remains in place across zones 1 and 5. To the west a cold front is moving through Illinois and will impact the forecast area later this afternoon into the evening. Along the front an area of heavy rain is developing and will be steered this way through the afternoon.

SATRDR

By 1-2 PM a few isolated areas of rain and storms will be developing across Indiana. However, the larger shield of rain will be entering western Indiana at this time as well.

2PM

Rain and storms will continue to push across Indiana through the afternoon. Precipitation is forecast to arrive in Indianapolis between 3-4 PM this afternoon.

4PM

Through the evening rain and storms will continue to push eastward ahead of the cold front. By 7-8 PM the rain and storms will be moving across eastern Indiana and western Ohio. It looks like this will also be the most likely time for rainfall to start across the Cincinnati area.

8PM

By 12 AM the cold front will be off to the east along with most of the rain and storms. However, with some lingering moisture some isolated to scattered rain showers will possible across eastern Indiana and western Ohio.

FRI12AM

While I am not expecting any severe weather today, a few strong storms can’t be totally ruled out across the forecast area. Any threat that should develop would be in the way of gusty winds, hail, and heavy downpours.

New rainfall totals across zones 1 and 5 will be heavy in places. The average rainfall accumulation looks to be around .30-.60”. However, I do think there will be areas that could see 1.75-2.50” locally under the heavier pockets of rain and storms. The places that do receive the heavier totals could also see some localized flash flooding.

RPM
RPM

 

HRRR
HRRR

Through the overnight high pressure will start to build in, as it does drier air will spread across the region. This will allow clouds to fade out throughout the overnight from west to east.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 40’s to mid 50’s.

FRIDAY: High pressure will remain in control of the weather to start the day on Friday. This will allow for mostly sunny skies to remain in place across the forecast zones through most of the day.

FROHGHPRESS

Highs on Friday will be in the mid 60’s to low 70’s.

FRIPANEL

By 8-9 PM Friday a few isolated showers or storms will start to creep into western Indiana ahead of an approaching cold front.

A line of t’storms will be in place ahead of the cold front across Illinois at 11 PM. These will continue to work their way into Indiana through the overnight.

FRI 11PM

By 2-3 AM Saturday morning rain and some storms will be quickly moving southeast across Indiana and into very western Ohio. Currently it looks like storms would arrive in Indianapolis around 12-1 AM Saturday. The NAM does show more of a scattered line of storms. However, with the type of forcing we will have with the cold front, a skinny line of gusty storms wouldn’t surprise me.

SAT2AM

Through the overnight the storms will continue off to the southeast along with the cold front. It looks like better timing for storms in the Cincinnati area will be around 3-4 AM .

Lows overnight will be in the upper 40’s north to mid 50’s south.

SATURDAY: A few rain showers look to remain in place across eastern Indiana and Ohio by 7-8 AM Saturday morning as the front exits out of the region.

SAT8A

Through the morning hours’ showers will come to an end across the entire forecast area. However, I do think partly to mostly cloudy skies will be in place.

Through the afternoon on Saturday high pressure will start to move into the forecast area. This will allow the clouds to break up and some sunshine to get through during the afternoon and evening.

sat syn

Highs on Saturday will be cool with temperatures only warming into the low 50’s north to around 60 south. Winds will be breezy at times with gusts of 20-25 mph possible.

SATPAN

Saturday night, skies look to become clear to mostly clear and winds will lighten. This will allow any heat from the day to escape and temperatures will fall into the mid 30’s north to around 40 south. With the chilly temperatures I do think there will be frost in areas Saturday night into Sunday.

SUNDAY: The area of high pressure will remain in place during the day on Sunday. This will lead to mostly to partly sunny skies across zones 1 and 5 through the day on Sunday.

sundya

There will be a weak backdoor front that squeezes through the area Sunday afternoon. While the environment will be dry and stable, perhaps a couple isolated showers may develop. Regardless, they will be very isolated and very light in nature.

SUN2PM

Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 50’s north where there more cloud cover looks to remain to the low 60’s south where more sunshine is forecast to get through.

SUNPAN

MONDAY-TUESDAY: The area of high pressure will move off to the region east on Monday. However, it looks to be in control of the weather through at least mid-day. This should allow most of Monday to remain nice.

However, an area of low pressure will be moving in from the south and southwest. This will allow rain chances to increase late Monday afternoon into the overnight.

MON11PM

Highs on Monday will be in the low to mid 60’s.

Rain and storms will remain possible on Tuesday. However, models are not agreeing on coverage and timing. The GFS is much more aggressive with heavy rain and t’storms Monday night and Tuesday.

TUE5PM

However, the EURO model develops a break in the precipitation Tuesday giving us some dry time. Then by evening more areas of rain develop and move into the forecast zones. The exact timing and rain/storm chances are something we will have to fine-tune for you as we get closer to the forecast period.

7 DAY FORECAST (TEMPERATURES WILL USUALLY COOLER NORTH TO WARMER SOUTH)

Screen Shot 2016-05-12 at 10.14.38 AM

512167DAY