AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: Clouds and fog still linger across areas this morning in zones 1 and 5. However, we are starting to see those erode and the sun get through in locations.
Through the afternoon clouds will start to break up across the area giving way to some sunshine.
As skies clear this afternoon and evening some instability will build in across southwestern Indiana in zone 5 closer to the warm front. It’s in this area of instability where the best chance for storms will exist this afternoon and evening.
It appears this afternoon into the evening a cluster of storms will develop across southern Illinois around an area of strong 500 mb vorticy. This will move eastward this evening entering southwestern Indiana around 4-5 PM.
It does appear that this cluster will fall apart as it moves into zone 5 due to the low-end amounts of instability. By 9-10 PM the NAM 4km shows only some scattered rain and storms across southern Indiana.
I do want to emphasize, IF more sunshine and instability can be realized this afternoon the threat for storms could extend north and eastward across Indiana. So just make sure to check back with us on social media for any now cast updates we may have, because right now there is tremendous disagreement among models.
While I am not expecting any major severe weather events today. I do think some strong to severe storms will be possible across southwestern Indiana as the line initially enters the state, with perhaps more risk north and east depending on how much instability occurs.
Into the overnight isolated to widely scattered areas of rain and storms could regenerate in the wake of the afternoon system. This will be thanks to outflow boundaries and the cooler area of air left behind called a “cold pool”. By 2-3 AM Thursday morning some of those areas of rain and storms look to remain possible across Indiana and western Ohio.
Through the overnight rain should come to an end across most of Indiana. However, some storms will remain possible across far eastern Indiana and into Ohio.
Lows overnight will be in the upper 50’s to mid 60’s.
THURSDAY: By 7-8 AM a few areas of rain or a couple of storms may be ongoing across western Ohio. Farther west across the IL/IN state line the cold front will be in place with perhaps some isolated areas of rain along it.
Through the morning into early afternoon the cold front will continue east and southeast. As it does, rain and a few storms will develop along it. By 1-2 PM the cold front looks to be moving into central Indiana.
Through the afternoon the cold front will quickly move eastward across Indiana and into western Ohio, likely entering Ohio around 4-5 PM. Along the front rain and t’storms will develop.
Through the evening the front and storms will move across eastern/southern Indiana and western Ohio. By 9-10 PM the front and any precipitation will be exiting the forecast zones.
New rainfall totals across zones 1 and 5 will average around .25-.50”. However, places that get under the heavier storms could see 2-3” of new rainfall locally through Thursday night.
Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s where the front moves through earlier. To the east of the front high will warm into the low 70’s to possibly upper 70’s.
Thursday night into Friday high pressure will start to ridge in and drier air will bring a complete end to the rain and allow skies to start to clear.
Lows will be in the low to mid 50’s.
FRIDAY: High pressure will be in place across the forecast area to start the day on Friday. This should allow for sunny to mostly sunny skies to persist through the daytime hours.
Highs on Friday will be in the upper 60’s north to mid 70’s south.
Friday evening into the overnight a cold front will swing through the forecast area from the northwest. By 10-11 PM a cold front and rain will be moving into northwestern Indiana.
Through the overnight the front and associated precipitation will move to the southeast. By 2-3 AM scattered areas of rain will be possible across zone 1 in Indiana.
Through the overnight the cold front and rain will move off to the east and southeast. By 7-8 AM Saturday morning the front will be in place across central and southwest Ohio. While most rain will be out of the area, a few showers may remain across the Cincinnati area.
WEEKEND: The cold front and rain will quickly exit out of the forecast area through Saturday morning. As it does, high pressure will build in. This will allow clouds to decrease throughout the day on Saturday.
However, with the high pressure in place it will also make for a chilly start to the weekend. Highs on Saturday will be in the low 50’s north to low 60s south! Winds will be breezy at times with gusts up to 25 mph possible.
Sunday the high pressure system will be in place. However, there will be two other systems moving closer to the region. Models do vary on the exact forecast for Sunday. The GFS would support some isolated to scattered showers across southern zones.
However, the EURO and CMC both suggest high pressure would suppress the rain to the south of the region allowing for mostly to partly sunny skies and dry conditions to continue.
Right now I do favor the CMC/EURO solution with the high pressure suppression. However, we will fine-tune the forecast over the next few days.
Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 50’s north to upper 60’s south.
LONG-RANGE (NEXT WEEK): Models do continue to show a more active pattern once we get past the weekend. Models do suggest at least isolated to scattered rain/storm chances will be possible several days next week. However, we also could see a couple of drier days as well.
Right now models would suggest we continue with 60’s most of next week. However, some hints at a warm up do come by late next week. Which is not a surprise as I would expect May to end warmer than normal.
7 DAY FORECAST (TEMPERATURES WILL VARY GENERALLY COOLER NORTH TO WARMER SOUTH)