AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT: A line of rain continues moving off to the east and southeast across eastern Indiana and western Ohio. This line is ahead of a cold front that has been quickly advancing across the forecast region this morning.
Through the afternoon the front and precipitation will continue its movement to the east and southeast across the zones. By 1-2 PM the cold front will be in place across very southern Indiana/ northern KY and then northward across western Ohio. Most of the rain and perhaps a couple t’storms will be in place ahead of the front across the forecast area in Ohio. However, I do think some showers will still be in place across Indiana.
Through the evening the pesky upper-level low will continue spinning across the forecast area. As it does, the pieces of energy moving through the environment will prove enough to spark some more showers across Indiana and Ohio through the afternoon. By 5-6 PM isolated to scattered showers will be in place across zones 1 and 5.
By 8-9 PM the upper-level disturbance looks to weaken and move out of the region. This coupled with the loss of daytime heating should allow a lot of showers to fade out. However, isolated showers will remain across the forecast area.
With the upper-level low in place the air aloft will be very cold. For that reason, I do think some small hail will be possible with some of the pockets of rain this afternoon. There also could be a few cold air funnels across the forecast area.
Through the overnight some isolated showers will remain possible across zones 1 and 5. However, I really think these will be pretty isolated.
Lows overnight will be in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.
THURSDAY: While some patchy fog or mist may occur in some locations across northern zone one Thursday morning I would expect that to burn off pretty quickly once the sun rises.
Thursday morning the upper-level low will be rotating out of the region. However, some remnant energy will still be moving through Ohio and portions of Indiana. With that in mind I do think isolated to widely scattered light showers will be possible through the morning hours. By 8-9 AM the NAM 4 km shows some of those remaining showers.
Through late morning into the afternoon any remaining rain will be spinning southward around the upper-level low. By 1-2 PM most of the showers should be out of the forecast area with the exception of southern Indiana and southern Ohio where some will linger.
The forecast models do redevelop some showers Thursday afternoon across zones 1 and 5. However, with an area of high pressure moving into the region and the upper-level energy exiting south, this may be a little bit overdone.
Regardless, with the high building in, drier air should work its way in across zones 1 and 5 Thursday. This will allow clouds to decrease through the afternoon and may even yield sunshine across most of the forecast area by sunset.
Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 50’s east where clouds and rain persist to the mid 60’s west where more sunshine is likely. Winds will be a bit breezy at times with 20-30 mph gusts possible.
New rainfall totals through Thursday (excluding the line currently moving through at 11 AM WED), will be pretty minimal. Most places will see less than .25”.
FRIDAY: An area of high pressure will remain in control of the weather on Friday. This will allow for mostly sunny skies and dry weather to remain in place to end the workweek.
At upper-levels a ridge of high pressure will be working into the Midwest from the Great Plains region. Not only should this reinforce sunny and dry conditions, but also allow warmer air to build back into the forecast zones.
Highs on Friday will be on the rise with temperatures in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. Winds will be out of the west and southwest at 5-15 mph.
SATURDAY: We will start Saturday off with some sunshine across zones 1 and 5. However, a cold front will be sagging southward out of the great lakes region. As it does, clouds will be on the increase through the day.
As the front moves into the region later in the afternoon rain and thunderstorms will develop along the front. Right now it appears best timing for rain and storms would be after 4-5 PM Saturday evening, but timing is something that will have to be fine-tuned as we get closer to the weekend.
While upper-level winds will not be overly impressive, some moderate instability levels are possible by late afternoon across zones 1 and 5. Forecast CAPE values are currently about 1200-2000 J/Kg, that would be enough to support strong to severe storms.
While many things will come into factor regarding strong/severe storm potential on Saturday, it is something we will be watching closely. Especially given that the past several “lower end” events have over performed in the severe weather category.
Highs on Saturday will be warm with temperatures in the mid 70’s north to low 80’s south. Winds will be strong at times with the front in place. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible.
SUNDAY: The front will slow Saturday night into Sunday across southern portions of the forecast area. I do think by Sunday morning the front will be mostly stationary across southern Illinois and southern Indiana.
As the environment warms on Sunday the front will once again become the focal point for rain and thunderstorm development. So while it doesn’t look like an all-day rain threat on Sunday, chances will increase through the afternoon and into the evening.
Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 70’s north of the front. To the south of the front temperatures will be in the upper 70’s to low 80’s. Highs across the region will depend greatly on the exact placement of the stationary front.
LONG-RANGE (NEXT WEEK): It does look like the pattern will remain active next week, especially through mid-week as we will be targeting another area of low pressure forecast to move through the area on the 10/11 timeframe.
Right now it is still too early to determine threats, timing, location, or impacts. However, we will fine-tune those as we get closer to next week.