AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT: A large upper-level trough continues to push southward into the forecast region behind a strong storm system that brought heavy rain and severe weather to the area yesterday. Disturbances moving through this upper-level trough will be the source for rain shower chances through the next several days.
This morning mostly cloudy skies remain in place across zones 6 & 7 as we still have moisture left at the low-levels of the environment. Across western Illinois some rain showers are still in place thanks to an upper-level piece of energy.
Through the morning into mid-day the main chance for any rain showers will remain across western Illinois. By 12-1 PM there will be a surface wind shift that moves southward across the region. This will be associated with an upper-level vorticity max/disturbance moving through. Along this wind shift some scattered areas of rain will develop mainly across zone 6, but I won’t rule out a few showers in zone 7 either.
Through the evening the better chances of rain will move out of the area by 4-5 PM. However, isolated to scattered light rain showers will remain possible across both zones.
Through the evening isolated to scattered rain showers will continue to rotate to the south and southeast on the backside of the area of low pressure. I do think isolated to scattered rain chances will hang on through 12-1 AM tonight because of an area of upper-level vorticity is forecast to move across Illinois after 10 PM. This should help increase rain chances some later tonight.
Through the overnight into Tuesday morning the showers will fade as we lose daytime heating and no upper-level impulses are forecast to move through. We may even see some breaks in the cloud cover overnight, but partly to mostly cloudy skies will still remain.
Lows overnight will be in the low 40’s north to around 50 south.
TUESDAY: By early Tuesday morning some moisture looks to remain present at lower levels. This may help contribute to some AM fog. However, any fog that should develop looks to burn off pretty fast Tuesday morning.
The upper-level trough will continue to move southward through the daytime hours on Tuesday. I do think through the morning hours there will be many places that are dry with some possibly some sunshine, and only a few light showers around.
Through the afternoon a better 500 mb vorticity lobe organizes and moves to the south/southeast. This will allow clouds and rain shower chances to increase. With very cold air aloft Tuesday, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some hail within the better pockets of rain.
While I don’t think it will be widespread rain, the more isolated to scattered chances of rain will be associated with this through the afternoon. By 3-4 PM the NAM 4 km does show some of those isolated to scattered showers in place.
Highs on Tuesday will be cool with temperatures topping out around 60 north to the mid 60’s south.
Tuesday night a cold front will be moving in from the north. Ahead of the front rain and perhaps a few storms will develop. By 3-4 AM Wednesday morning the line of rain will be entering zone 7 from the north.
The line of rain will continue advancing south and southeast along the front through the early morning. By 7-8 AM Wednesday rain and a few storms will be moving across southern zone 7 into zone 6.
Lows Tuesday night into Wednesday will be in the upper 40’s to mid 50’s.
WEDNESDAY: Through the morning hours the front will push southward across southern Illinois into Kentucky. As it does, most of the rain will exit with it. By 12-1 PM only some isolated to widely scattered showers look to remain in place across zone 6 as an upper-level vorticity max moves through.
Late Wednesday evening into the overnight dry conditions look to move in through the overnight. This will be thanks to an area of high pressure that start to move closer the region through Wednesday evening.
Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 50’s north to around 70 south.
While rain will be possible over the next several days I’m not expecting any significant rainfall as most will come in the form of showers. Models show less than .25” of new rainfall in many locations across Illinois. I think this is a pretty accurate representation of what to expect, if anything should change in regard to rainfall I will make sure to update you.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Models do suggest we stay dry on Thursday. However, early in the morning there will be some upper-level vorticity moving across the region with the upper-level low. I would be surprised if this didn’t generate some shower activity from early Thursday morning to mid-day/early afternoon (depending on timing). For that reason, I’ll leave in the mention for isolated to widely scattered showers through mid-day Thursday.
While the upper-level low will be in place to the east, a surface high will be in place to the west. While I do think there will be a lot of clouds in place across eastern portions of the forecast area Thursday, western Illinois could see enough dry air move in that sunshine gets though.
Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 50’s to low 60’s where more clouds are present (likely eastern Illinois and points eastward). However, where more sunshine is realized highs will be in the low to mid 60’s.
Thursday night into Friday a large Omega block will set up across the Great Plains and push its way westward into the forecast area.
At the surface a large area of high pressure will build in as well. With these two features in place it should allow skies to clear across the forecast zones Thursday night and set up sunny skies just in time for the end of the work week!
High will be in the upper 50’s east to upper 60’s west depending on exact placement of the ridge.
LONG RANGE(WEEKEND): The big upper-level high will be firmly in place on Saturday across the forecast zones. This should allow for a great start to the weekend with warmer temperatures and lots of sunshine.
Highs on Saturday will be in the mid 70’s to around 80!
Sunday there will be a system to the north of the region. Right now it looks like a front will move through late in the day allowing for increasing clouds and at least some scattered rain/storms. However, timing/coverage is something that will need worked out as we get closer to the forecast period.
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