AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT: An upper-level trough continues to build into the eastern U.S. today. This will have a big impact on our weather over the next several days before moving out of the region later in the week.
Mostly cloudy skies remain in place across zone 1 with some sunshine getting through across southern zone 5. However, there is little in the way of precipitation showing up on radar which is a good thing after the rains that have soaked many parts of the region.
There are a couple of areas of rain shower potential we will be watching this afternoon. The first will be the development of some rain showers along a wind shift. This wind shift is associated with an upper-level disturbance moving through.
A larger area of rain is in place to the regions south/southwest. This will move northeastward over the next few hours. While most of this will skirt south of zone 5 in Indiana, some of this could impact southeastern Indiana and into the Cincinnati area by 3-4 PM. The HRRR does show some of those showers along the wind shift and around Cincinnati by the 3 PM hour.
Those areas of rain look to be pretty short-lived. By 6-7 PM the rain previously discussed will be either fading out or moving to the regions east. Only some isolated showers look to remain across central Indiana at this time.
Through the evening some isolated light rain showers will remain possible. By 10-11 PM only a few light showers will be possible across zone 1 in Indiana and perhaps western Ohio.
Through the overnight some isolated showers will remain possible across zones 1 and 5. However, it appears these will be very hit and miss. Most will likely fade as we get into the overnight hours.
Lows tonight will be in the mid 40’s north to near 50 south.
TUESDAY: It looks like we will start the day mostly dry on Tuesday with only a few stray rain showers possible. However, through the day short wave trough will move through the region. This will cause the air to lift a little through the afternoon and more showers will become possible.
By 3-4 PM some showers will be possible across zone 1 and zone 5 in Indiana.
Through the evening these showers will become more numerous. Partially because of the trough, partly because there will be some very cold air aloft. Anytime there is very cold air over warm surface air, instability develops and rain becomes more likely. With lapse rates (instability) of 9-10 tomorrow evening, I won’t totally rule out some small hail with the heavier rain showers.
By 7-8 PM scattered rain showers will be ongoing across Indiana and Ohio.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 50’s to mid 60’s.
Tuesday evening into the overnight showers will fade as the disturbance moves through and we lose daytime heating. However, we will be watching a cold front moving in from the northwest. By 5-7 Am Wednesday morning rain and a few storms will enter northwestern zone 1 and push southeast.
WEDNESDAY: The latest model runs would place rain and a few storms in Indianapolis just in time for the morning rush hour Wednesday, so the commute to work could be a wet one. By 8-9 AM the cold front and associated rain will be in place across eastern and southern Indiana.
By 10-11 AM the line will push to the east and southeast. Current timing would place the line of rain in western Ohio and the Cincinnati area by 10 AM Wednesday morning.
Through the afternoon the line will move out of the forecast area. However, there will still be an upper-level disturbance moving through, so isolated to scattered rain chances will remain through the evening.
Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 50’s north to mid 60’s far south near the Ohio River.
Models do keep the forecast dry Wednesday night into Thursday. However, with another vorticity max forecast to move across the forecast zones overnight, at least some isolated showers will be possible.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: The upper-level low will spin-off to the east of us Thursday afternoon and an area of high pressure will start to build in behind it. However, another weak upper-level disturbance will move through one last time. This will likely be enough to spark a few afternoon/evening showers on Thursday, especially across Indiana.
New rainfall totals across the forecast area through Thursday average between .15-.30”. However, places that get under a heavier pocket of rain or possibly even a t’storm could see .50-.90” locally.
Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 50’s east to mid 60’s west.
Thursday night into Friday a large Omega block will set up across the Great Plains and push its way westward into the forecast area.
At the surface a large area of high pressure will build in as well. With these two features in place it should allow skies to clear across the forecast zones Thursday night and set up sunny skies just in time for the end of the work week!
Highs will be in the upper 50’s east to upper 60’s west depending on exact placement of the ridge.
LONG RANGE(WEEKEND): The big upper-level high will be firmly in place on Saturday across the forecast zones. This should allow for a great start to the weekend with warmer temperatures and lots of sunshine.
Highs on Saturday will be in the mid 70’s to around 80!
Sunday there will be a system to the north of the region. Right now it looks like a front will move through late in the day allowing for increasing clouds and at least some scattered rain/storms. However, timing/coverage is something that will need worked out as we get closer to the forecast period.
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