Zone 1 & 5 Thu. Forecast: Rain & A Few Strong Storms Today, Dry Through Fri. Afternoon, More Rain This Weekend. JT.

Home / Uncategorized / Zone 1 & 5 Thu. Forecast: Rain & A Few Strong Storms Today, Dry Through Fri. Afternoon, More Rain This Weekend. JT.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT: An area of low pressure remains to the zone forecast areas northwest this morning. While we are seeing sunshine breaking out across the state there are a couple of fronts still in place.

now

Through the afternoon as the environment destabilizes more rain and some storms will develop across the area. By 1-2 PM along the fronts near the area of low pressure.

2pm

Through the afternoon into the evening more rain and storms will develop along the fronts, especially across southeastern/eastern Indiana and into southern Ohio. By 5- 6 PM scattered areas of rain and storms will be occurring across those areas, including around Cincinnati.

5PM

Through the evening the better chances of rain will advance off to the east with the frontal boundaries. By 8-9 PM only a few showers will be left near the occluded front.

9M

Some of the storms that develop across eastern Indiana and into southern Ohio could be on the strong to perhaps low-end severe side. While there will be some decent CAPE building between the cold and stationary front the lifespan of the better amounts OF instability could be limited as the fronts get closer and “close the door” on instability.

CAPEFRON

Aloft there is some decent 500 mb winds of 45-60 mph forecast. However, lower in the environment winds are very weak. So overall, the amount of wind shear is not impressive. With that being said, the past few days of storms have been “overachievers” when it comes to severe storms. With that, fronts, upper-level winds, and instability all in mind, I won’t rule out at least a couple severe warnings and reports this afternoon.

STRONG SOTMRS

Through the evening into the overnight any remaining showers will fade across the forecast area. By 1-2 AM only a few stray showers will be in place.

FRI 2 AM

Lows overnight into Friday will drop into the mid 40’s north to mid 50’s south. So it will be a cooler start to the morning on Friday.

FRIDAY: I do think many places will wake up dry Friday morning. However, there are some indications that some patchy fog and a few showers could be in place by 7-8 AM.

FRI8AM

Through early afternoon some stray showers will remain possible across eastern/southeastern Indiana and into southern Ohio. However, these look isolated and light in nature, so I don’t expect them to be an issue.

FRI2PM

Clouds and sunshine will likely start us out through early afternoon on Friday. However, more cloud cover will work its way in through the afternoon hours.

FRIPAN

Highs on Friday will top out in the low 60’s north to low 70’s south.

While the daytime hours on Friday look dry across zones 1 and 5, some rain showers will start to work their way into southwestern portions of Indiana by 7-8 PM Friday night.

FRI7PM

Through the overnight rain and perhaps a couple of storms will continue working their way to the north across zones 1 and 5. It looks like rain will start to move into the Indianapolis and Cincinnati areas by 9-10 PM.

FRI11PM

Through the overnight into Saturday morning scattered rain and storms will remain possible across zones 1 and 5.

SAT5AM

Lows Friday night into Saturday will be in the mid 40’s north to mid 50’s south.

SATURDAY: By 8-9 AM Saturday morning rain and storms will continue lifting northward across Indiana and Ohio. These will continue across the forecast zones through the morning hours.

SAT8AM

Through early afternoon rain and some storms will continue to lift northward, perhaps setting the stage for a drier afternoon. By 2 PM rain and some storms will be ongoing across northern/eastern Indiana and Ohio.

SAT2PM

Through Saturday afternoon and evening some isolated to scattered areas of rain and storms will continue. However, I do think there will be some dry time Saturday afternoon and evening. By 7-8 PM Saturday evening those isolated to scattered storms will be in place.

SAT8PM

Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 50’s north to near 70 south. If we can get some sunshine on Saturday temperatures across zone 1 may be warmer than what is currently forecast. Winds will be out of the south on Saturday with some strong winds gusts of 30-35 mph possible.

SATPAN

IF rain and storms should exit to the north early Saturday and some clearing could be realized, a severe weather threat could develop across Indiana and perhaps western Ohio. However, it currently looks like early morning rain will limit instability and likely keep any severe weather from occurring. It’s something we will watch over the next day or so.

Saturday night into Sunday rain and a few t’storms will be possible across zones 1 and 5. However, it looks like these will be pretty isolated to scattered through the overnight.

SUNDAY: We will start the day off on Sunday quiet with little to no rain expected in the forecast zones.

SUN8AM

As we progress through the afternoon a low pressure system and warm front will move to the south of the forecast zones. As it does rain chances will increase through the afternoon. By 7-8 PM scattered areas of rain will be moving into Indiana.

SUN8PM

Highs on Sunday will be around 60 north to near 70 south. Winds will be breezy at times with gusts of 20-25 mph possible.

SUNPAN

Sunday night into Monday the low pressure system will move to the southeast of the forecast zones. As it does, it will take any rain with it. It looks like conditions will dry out across zones 1 and 5 after 2-3 AM Monday morning.

I do want to make the mention; severe weather does look possible along the warm front on Sunday. Currently models show the low and warm front tracking across north central Kentucky so the severe weather threat would be south of the region. However, if the low would be farther north the severe weather threat would increase over portions of the forecast area. It is something we will be watching over the next few days.

Some impressive rainfall totals look likely across both zones 1 and 5 through the end of the weekend. It looks like an average of .80-1.10” if rainfall looks like a good bet. However, places that get under some of the storms or heavier pockets of rain could see upwards of 2-2.5” of new rainfall.

NAM 4 km
NAM 4 km

 

NAM 12 km
NAM 12 km

 

GFS
GFS

NEXT WEEK: Beyond the weekend into next workweek we will see an upper-level trough build in across the northeastern U.S. While I don’t think the weather will be as active as what it has been, I do think models are under playing the overall precipitation chances. The main reason for this is, we will be on a northwesterly flow through at least mid next week. Generally speaking, a northwesterly flow will result in disturbances moving through the area resulting in areas of light rain showers or scattered rain.

500

With the trough in place temperatures will likely be slightly below average across the region, at least to start the week.

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