Zone 1 and 5 Monday Forecast: Heavy Rain & Strong Storms Ahead, Active Pattern Continues Into The Weekend. JT.

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON-EVENING: Sunny to mostly sunny skies remain in place across the forecast area this morning. This is thanks to a warm front that is place to the north and a cold front that is in place well to the areas west.

current

Through the afternoon mostly sunny skies will continue across the forecast zones along with mostly dry conditions. However, as we build in the heat of the day, a couple stray showers could develop across the zone forecast area.

The better chances for rain and some thunderstorms will move into northern zone 1 into the overnight hours. By 3-4 AM the front will be pushing to the south, along this rain and storms will enter northern zone 1.

TUE4AM

As the front settles southward overnight, rain and storms will as well. However, I think they will be losing their steam through the overnight. Regardless, rain & storms look to arrive in Indianapolis around 5-6 AM.

TUE6AM

Lows overnight will be in the upper 50’s to low 60’s.

TUESDAY: By 8 AM Tuesday morning rain and perhaps a few storms will be ongoing across the I-70 area and southward. However, by this point in time coverage will be on the decrease across zones 1 and 5 across Indiana and western Ohio.

Through the morning into the lunchtime hour, the front will slow and start to stall across the forecast zones. However, rain chances look to be pretty isolated with only some showers across zones 1/5 in Indiana.

TUE12PM

With the front stalled out across the forecast zones rain and t’storm chances will increase through the afternoon on Tuesday as instability builds with daytime heating. By 5-6 PM scattered rain and storms will be possible across both zones in Indiana and Ohio. I think better chances will move into Cincinnati by this time.

TUE6PM

I do think storms Tuesday afternoon/evening could be on the strong to low-end severe side, no widespread severe weather is anticipated. The main thing lacking will be upper-level winds, which will be extremely weak.

However, instability does look to be pretty impressive with 2000-3000+ J/Kg of CAPE. This would be enough CAPE to allow storms to rapidly develop along the stationary front through the afternoon and evening. With that kind of upward lift gusty/damaging winds and hail become possible.

TUECAP

Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 70’s to near 80.

TUEPAN

Tuesday evening into the overnight better rain and storm chances will continue to work their way south out of zone 1 and into zone 5. Allowing for heavy rain and storms to impact zone 5. I do think some gusty to strong storms may continue through 1-2 AM to the south.

WED2AM

WEDNESDAY: Rain and storms will continue through the overnight before starting to fade by early Wednesday morning. While areas of rain and perhaps a stray t’storm will continue, by 7-8 AM Wednesday morning rain coverage and intensity is forecast be far less than the overnight hours.

WED8AM

Through mid-day on Wednesday the front will still remain in place across southern Indiana. However, only isolated to widely scattered showers will be in place by 1-2 PM across both zones 1 and 5.

WED2PM

Through the afternoon Wednesday instability will build back in, primarily from I-70 southward across Indiana. This will allow another round of storms to develop along the frontal boundary through the afternoon and evening. By 7-8 PM scattered rain and storms will be possible across most of the forecast zones.

WED8PM

Again, while a few storms could be strong to low-end severe Wednesday evening, I think the overall severe weather threat will be diminished because of the lack of upper-level wind support. However, I won’t rule out a few severe weather reports, especially across southern Indiana where winds may be a bit better.

wed850

Wednesday night into Thursday rain and storm chances will decrease as the low moves closer and the warm front lifts northward.

Highs on Wednesday will be a bit tricky and highly dependent on the exact location of the front. North of the front highs in the upper 50’s to mid 60’s can be expected. However, south of the front highs in the 70’s will occur.

WEDPAN

Rainfall could become a pretty big concern with this storm system depending on the front and what kind of precipitation coverage is realized. The NAM 12 km does show a good soaking with a widespread .75-1.50” of new rainfall through Thursday morning with 1.50-2” possible in locations.

nam12

I do want to address one concern I always have with slow/stalling fronts when there is high atmospheric water content. That’s the fact you get a front located in one general area over a large time period. Rain and storms form along the front, then continually impact the same areas with heavy rains. So depending on how the front acts over the next day or two, some locally heavy rain or even flooding could be a concern. However, this is something we will have to watch and pinpoint over time as new information becomes available.

THURSDAY – FRIDAY: The area of low pressure will be weakening Wednesday night into Thursday. This may allow more of a “wave” of low pressure to stick around at least through the morning hours on Thursday. This would allow for some scattered areas of rain and perhaps a few storms to stick around as well.

THU8AM

Through the afternoon hours the wave of low pressure will weaken as it continues to the east. This will allow rain chances to decrease through the afternoon hours on Thursday.

THU5PM

Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 60’s north to upper 70’s south.

THUPAN

Friday looks to be a nice day across the forecast area as we will be between the exiting low and another low pressure system developing across the Plains.

FRI

It looks like Friday will consist of a mix of clouds and sunshine. Highs will top out in the upper 60’s north to mid 70’s south.

LONG-RANGE (WEEKEND): On Saturday an area of low pressure will be developing to the west. Ahead of this a warm front will be lifting to the north through the afternoon. This front will bring rain and storm chances into the region later in the day.

gfs_z500_vort_us_23

Through overnight Saturday through Sunday a strong surface low will continue to deepen as moves towards the Midwest. As the low moves through the area on Sunday it will bring with it at least rain and some thunderstorms.

 

SUNDAY
SUNDAY

 

However, this is a date we have been targeting for some time now for the potential of severe weather too. While it is still a little too far out to nail down specifics, the threat is there and worth mentioning. We will continue to watch this over the next several days as we get closer to the forecast timeframe.