AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT: Rain and clouds continue today across the forecast zones as both an upper-level low and a surface low move through. As of mid-day this has allowed some areas of rain to develop, especially across southern Indiana closer to the surface low.
Through the afternoon rain and some t’storms will continue to develop across zones 1 and 5. By 2 PM rain and some storms will be possible across both zones in Indiana and Ohio.
Through the evening both lows will continue off to the east of the zones. By 5-6 PM rain chances will be coming to an end across western Indiana. However, places across eastern Indiana and Ohio will still be dealing with scattered rain/storms.
Through the evening hours the upper-level energy will move off to the east. As we get later in the evening towards sun set, we will lose daytime heating and instability as well. With these two factors on the decrease, the showers and storms will be too. By 9-10 PM this evening only isolated rain will persist across eastern Indiana and into Ohio.
I will mention, temperatures aloft today are very cold. So lapse rates will be relatively high across the region. With this in mind, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few reports of some smaller hail with some of the thunderstorms that develop today.
New rainfall totals of .15-.30” will be more common across the forecast zones. However, areas that get under an t’storm could see .50-.85” or so locally.
Through the overnight high pressure will start to build into the region from the north. This will allow for showers to end completely. While skies will be clearing overnight as the high moves in, I do think some trapped moisture may allow at least some patchy fog to form overnight into Saturday morning. The RPM shows the lowered visibility by early Saturday morning.
Lows tonight will be in the low 40’s north to low 50’s south.
SATURDAY: High pressure will be in control of our weather on Saturday. While some places could start out with some fog, sunshine will burn that off through the morning hours. This making way for sunny to mostly sunny skies across zones 1 and 5.
Highs on Saturday will be a little cooler, but nice. Temperatures will top out in the low 60’s north to near 70 south. Winds will be from the northeast at 5-15 mph.
SUNDAY: The area of high pressure will move out of the forecast region Saturday night into Sunday as an area of low pressure develops across the Great Plains. A warm front associated with the low will stretch out into the Great Lakes. While this may allow for some high clouds to move in Sunday, no precipitation is in the forecast.
With the warm front to the north we will return to a southerly flow of air on Sunday. This will allow for unseasonably warm temperatures to occur once again. Highs on Sunday will top out in the low 70’s north to around 80 southwest.
MONDAY: The area of low pressure across the northern Plains will start to move this way through the day on Monday, as it does a cold front will start to move south with it. Rain and some t’storms will develop along and ahead of the front Monday afternoon.
Through the afternoon into the evening the front will slow down as it progresses to the south across zones 1 and 5. As it does rain and storms chances will continue across the forecast area.
Highs on Monday will be in the mid 70’s to around 80 south.
TUESDAY: Model solutions do vary for Tuesday regarding the timing/placement of the cold front. The GFS takes the front to the south of the region before stalling it in place ahead of another developing low pressure system.
If this would verify then drier, cooler conditions would be likely on Tuesday.
However, the EURO stalls the front out farther north more across southern Illinois/southern Indiana. With the front in place Tuesday some isolated to scattered rain and storms would remain possible, especially across southern zones.
We will call for highs on Tuesday to be in the low 70’s north to upper 70’s south. However, temperatures will be highly dependent on the placement of the front.
WEDNESDAY: We will be watching the weather very closely by Wednesday afternoon as a severe weather event is already looking possible across the region.
A strong surface low pressure and cold front looks to move into the forecast area Wednesday. As it does, impressive upper and lower level energy will accompany it.
Storms look to develop along the warm and cold front through the afternoon/evening. As these move across the region they will feed off of the instability and energy in the environment they are in. Right now timing, placement, and threats will have to be fine-tuned over the next several days. None the less, at least the ingredients for a regional severe weather event appear to be coming together in the long-range forecast.