Zone 1 & 5 Tue. Forecast: Iso. Rain North Today, Better Rain & Storm Chances Are In The Forecast. JT.

Home / Uncategorized / Zone 1 & 5 Tue. Forecast: Iso. Rain North Today, Better Rain & Storm Chances Are In The Forecast. JT.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT: A mix of clouds and sun is in place across zones 1 and 5 today. This while precipitation remains to the west of the region.

CURRENT

Through the afternoon many places will remain dry across the forecast zones. However, there is a bit of a cold/stationary front across northern portions of Indiana and southeastward into Ohio. By 4-5 PM rain and perhaps a t’storm will develop along the front, mainly across northern zone 1 in Indiana.

5PM

Through the evening the primary focus for any rain will be across northern portions of zone 1 in Indiana. However, by 7-8 PM a couple stray showers across central Indiana and perhaps western Ohio aren’t totally out of the question. Regardless, anything there will be brief and light in nature.

7PM

Through the late evening and overnight any showers or storms across the area will fade as we lose daytime heating. While I won’t rule out a stray shower across the area overnight, they will be light.

Lows overnight will be around 50 northeast to the mid 50’s south.

WEDNESDAY: A few isolated light showers will be possible across the forecast zones Wednesday morning.

WED8AM

Through mid-day isolated showers will remain possible across zones 1 and 5, mainly in Indiana.

WED12PM

By 4-5 PM there will be a stationary front in place across northern Indiana and southeastward into Ohio. Some more isolated to widely scattered areas of rain and a few thunderstorms will be possible along this.

WED5PM

Highs on Wednesday will be in the low to mid 70’s. Winds will be strong at times, with gusts of 25-35 mph possible.

WEDPANEL

Rain and some storms will remain through the evening into the overnight as a front approaches from the west. By 1-2 AM the front will be in place across Illinois, but rain and storms will be moving into the zones, especially across Indiana.

THU2AM

THURSDAY: Through the overnight into Thursday morning the front does look to slow a little. However, rain and some t’storms look to continue across zones 1 and 5.

THU8AM

Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 60’s to low 70’s.

THUPANEL

By 10-11 AM Thursday morning the initial cold front will be pushing east across central Indiana. Any associated precipitation will be off to the east of the front.

THU11AM

Rain and some storms will remain possible across zones 1 and 5 in very southeastern Indiana and into Ohio Thursday evening. The NAM shows the rain remaining in place there around 5-6 PM.

THU5PM

By 8-9 PM a secondary cold front will be entering northwestern portions of zone 1 in Indiana. While moisture will be a little weak, I still think at least some rain showers will develop along the front.

By 11 PM-12 PM the cold front will be entering the Indianapolis area with some rain showers associated with it.

THU11PM

By 3-4 AM the front will reach the Cincinnati area, but by this time only a few isolated showers may remain.

FRI4AM

As of right now I am not anticipating any major severe weather. However, some of the latest model runs do suggest some strong to low-end severe storms could be possible Thursday evening. This will be highly dependent on instability, along with how much moisture is actually present in the environment. It’s something we will be watching over the next day or so.

New rainfall totals through early Friday morning will average between .30-.60”. However, it does look like a swath of .80-1.10” will be possible across southern portions of Indiana and Ohio. This is something we will have to fine-tune over the next 24 hours.

gfs

nam

THURSDAY NIGHT – FRIDAY: An area of low pressure will remain in the area through at least Thursday night. Right now, there is a large spread in models regarding the timing and placement of the low.

The NAM places the low to the south of the forecast area. This location would allow for better chances of rain to continue through the day on Friday.

FRINAM

The CMC exits the low by early to mid-afternoon. However, this solution would likely allow scattered rain showers and perhaps a storm to develop across the area.

The GFS and EURO models do exit the low much quicker paving way to a mostly dry Friday. The GFS would suggest the rain completely ends by early Friday morning, while the EURO keeps a few isolated showers in the forecast. We will continue to watch the models and trends over the next few days.

FRIGFS

Highs on Friday will be in the low 60’s north to around 70 south.

FRIPAN

LONG-RANGE(WEEKEND): Overall the weekend is looking very nice as an rea of high pressure builds into the region behind the end of the week weather system. This will allow for more sunshine and mostly dry conditions.

SAT

Highs this weekend will warm into the mid 60’s to mid 70’s Saturday. Highs on Sunday look to top out in the upper 60’s to possibly near 80 in locations!