Zone 1 & 5 Monday Forecast: A Couple More Days Of Nice Weather, Then Rain & Storms Return. JT.

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON – OVERNIGHT: An area of surface high pressure and the upper-level ridge will remain in control of the weather over zones 1 and 5 today. This will allow for sunny to mostly sunny skies to remain in place through the day, with only some high clouds building in.

today

Through the overnight into Tuesday clouds will be on the increase from west to east as the upper-level ridge of high pressure breaks down ahead of an upper-level area of low pressure.

500BREKADOWN

Lows overnight will be in the low to upper 50’s.

TUESDAY: The area of surface high pressure will be to the south. While it will be moving out of the forecast zones, it will still be far enough north and west across the area to keep us rain free for most of the day.

However, there will be a warm front lifting through the northern portions of Indiana through the afternoon. This front will help some isolated to widely scattered areas of rain and perhaps a couple t’storms to develop across northern zone 1 in Indiana and western Ohio around 3-4 PM Tuesday afternoon.

TUE4PM

Through the afternoon rain and some storms will be possible from I-70 north across Indiana and east into Ohio. However, as we get into the evening hours I would expect those to fade as we lose the heating of the day.

TUE10PM

Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to upper 70’s. Winds will be breezy at times with gusts of 20 mph possible.

TUESPAN

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning conditions will remain quiet with perhaps a few isolated light rain showers lingering.

Lows overnight will be in the low to upper 50’s.

WEDNESDAY: The warm front that was in place Tuesday may sag back southward overnight into Wednesday. As it does this front will start to lift back northward once again through the daytime hours Wednesday. While I think there will only be a few isolated showers by 8-9 AM Wednesday across zones 1 and 5, that coverage will increase as the warm front moves north.

WED8AM

By 2-3 PM Wednesday afternoon the warm front will be to the north, this while the area of low pressure and attendant cold front remains to the west of the region. However, since we will be near the warm front and in the warm sector of the storm system, scattered areas of rain and some thunderstorms will develop across zones 1 and 5 by this time.

WED2PM

Rain and storm chances will continue through the evening as the cold front continue to move towards the forecast zones from the west. By 7-8 PM there may be a lull in activity across Indiana while more rain continues across Illinois and Ohio.

WED8PM

Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 60’s west to mid 70’s east.

WEDPANEL

By 12-2 AM Thursday morning the cold front will be just to the west of Indiana. Along and ahead of the front, rain and some storms will continue across the zone forecast area.

THU2AM

Overnight areas of rain and storms will remain possible across zones 1 and 5. By 7-8 AM rain will be coming to an end across most of Indiana, at least briefly.

THURSDAY: Through the daytime hours Thursday dry conditions look likely. However, there will be another cold front that is progged to swing through the area later in the day. By 5-6 PM a cold front will swing in quickly from the northwest. As it does rain and thunderstorms will develop along the front. Rain chances look to go up around Indianapolis around 6 PM or so Thursday.

THU5PM

As the front advances southeast, so will the precipitation. By 8-9 PM the cold front will be near the Indiana/Ohio state line and rain will be entering Ohio, including the Cincinnati area.

THU8PM

While this event is still several days out, there appears there could be at least a chance for some strong storms associated with the front. However, that is something we will fine-tune as the small details become clearer.

Highs on Thursday will be mid to upper 60’s.

THUPANLE

New rainfall totals across the region will differ. Right now .30-.60” looks to be the average across most of Indiana. However, farther east across southern Ohio areas of .90-1.40” will be possible. We will have to watch things and fine tune those number over the next 24 hours or so.

NAM 12 km
NAM 12 km

 

GFS
GFS

THURSDAY NIGHT – FRIDAY: Thursday evening though Friday models do show an upper-level trough moving through the forecast area. This would allow for unsettled weather to continue while the trough is in place.

Timing is a bit different in the long-range within the models. The CMC/EURO are slower with the overall progression of the upper-level trough keeping it in the region through mid to late Friday. Therefore, allowing rain chances to continue.

EUROFRI

However, the GFS is a bit faster with the trough, exiting it to the east of the region earlier on Friday. With this solution rain would be out of the region and a dry end to the workweek would be expected.

GFSFRI