Zone 6 & 7 Fri. Forecast: A Few Showers Poss. This Afternoon, Fantastic Weekend Ahead! JT.

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT: Clouds and some clear skies are in place this morning across zones 6 and 7 in Illinois. This is thanks to that upper-level low that is to the southwest of us this morning causing a bit of a disturbance in the atmosphere.

current

Through the day the low will really start to weaken, having less impact on the weather across the zone forecast area.

500MBGIFTOFAY

I do think clouds will erode and thin out a bit through the day as the upper-level low weakens. However, a few isolated rain showers can’t be totally ruled out across zones 6 and 7. By 2 PM the HRRR model picks up on a few of those isolated showers.

2PM

Through the afternoon into the evening the showers will be moving northward across the forecast area. By 4-5 PM some isolated showers will be possible across northern zone 6 into zone 7.

5PM

While a few showers could persist through late evening into the early overnight, a lot of these will start to end after dark.

New rainfall totals through the evening will be pretty light in nature. A few places could see .20-.30” locally. However, .15” or less will be more common as the showers move through.

RAINFALL

Through the overnight mostly clear conditions will be in places across zones 6 and 7.

Lows will be in the upper 40’s to mid 50’s.

LOWS

SATURDAY: An upper-level ridge of high pressure will build into the forecast area on Saturday. As it does, it will keep our skies sunny to mostly sunny. It will also allow for a very warm flow of air to continue across the region.

SAT500

Highs on Saturday will be in the low to mid 70’s.

SATPANEL

SUNDAY: The upper-level ridge will continue to build to the north and warm air will continue to expand with it.

SUN500

At the surface the high pressure system off to the regions northeast will actually settle back to the west. This will allow for an area of surface high pressure to move into place Sunday across the region.

sunday

With the high pressure aloft and at the surface I expect sunny to mostly sunny skies to remain in place to end the weekend! Although a few high clouds could work their way into northern portions of the forecast area in the afternoon.

SUNPAN

Regardless, it will be a very nice and mild day with highs in the low to upper 70’s across the forecast zones.

MONDAY: While there will be a front to the north and an area of low pressure to the west on Monday, an area of high pressure will control our weather to start the week. As the large area of high pressure is in place it will keep any rain out of the forecast.

MONDAY

High on Monday will be mild once again. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 70’s under sunny to mostly sunny skies.

MONPAN

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: While previous models were a little more optimistic with the chance of rain next week, the latest models are far less aggressive. The main reason being, the area of high pressure that is forecast to move into the area will help us stay dry.

The best chance of rain we have through mid-next week will be an upper air disturbance that is forecast to roll through next Tuesday into next Wednesday. However, I think these will be more scattered in concentration, so a real widespread soaking rain isn’t favored.  

TUES

Highs next week would remain nice with temperatures in the mid 60’s to mid 70’s across the region.

LONG-RANGE: The best chance for rain looks to come next Thursday as a low pressure system develops and moves through the region. Regardless, it doesn’t look to be a real soaking rain, but more of a scattered rain/storm event.

8AMTHU-8PMFRI

However, temperatures don’t look to cool too much behind the system. High temperatures look to remain above average in many places next week.

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Surface Temperature Anomaly