AFTERNOON – OVERNIGHT: An area of surface high pressure remains in place to the regions northeast. This area of high pressure will slowly continue to move off to the northeast through the daytime hours today.
Skies this morning have started out clear across zones 6 and 7. However, throughout the day an upper-level low will move across the Central Plains and closer to the region.
As it does it will allow cloud coverage to increase late morning into the afternoon, especially across zone 6 where mostly cloudy skies will be possible this afternoon.
This evening into the overnight conditions will remain quiet across the forecast zones, with perhaps a sprinkle or very light rain shower across southern zone 6 very late. However, these look very isolated and light in nature.
Perhaps the biggest question will be the actual cloud cover itself overnight. The NAM is rather bullish with overcast skies across zone 6 and possibly into zone 7. However, the EURO would suggest more scattered cloud coverage across zone 6. Current reports from MO/AR do suggest models are a little aggressive with cloud coverage, even at this hour. So for zone 6/7 I will call for partly cloudy to perhaps mostly cloudy skies overnight.
Lows overnight will be in the mid 30s north to mid 40’s far south.
THURSDAY: The key weather feature on Thursday will be the upper-level low that will continue to spin just to the south of the forecast region.
This will allow partly to mostly cloudy skies to remain in place across zones 6 and into zone 7 through the daytime hours on Thursday.
Rain showers will become possible across southern zone 6 by 5-7 AM Thursday morning. These will be rotating around the low to the west and northwest.
Through the morning hours some rain showers look to continue, mainly across zone 6. By lunchtime a few areas of rain showers will be ongoing.
Through the afternoon into the evening some showers chances will remain mainly across zone 6. However, a few isolated light rain showers may work their way north after 5-6 PM.
Overall rain showers will be light in nature with most places seeing .10” or less. However, a few places could see .20-.40” locally.
Highs on Thursday will be in the low 60’s north to upper 60’s south.
Thursday night into Friday a few light rain showers may linger through 3-4 AM. However, the upper-level low will continue to weaken through the overnight. As it does, the energy aloft will be lost and rain shower chances will decrease.
There are some differences on what happens with what’s left of the low Thursday night and Friday. The NAM suggests it hangs around and just slowly just fades away into the overall ridge.
However, the global models GFS/CMC/EURO would suggest that as it weakens and become more of a wave, it gets picked up by the jet stream to the east of the region and taken away.
Yesterday I mentioned in the forecast discussion it made more sense to me that it would get picked up by the jet stream and taken out of the eastern U.S. So I will continue to favor the global models in that regard.
FRIDAY: The upper-level low will continue to weaken and will exit the area. This should set the stage for a nice end to the workweek with a mix of sun and clouds. With the upper-level low weakened greatly/gone and the region under the influence a high pressure ridge, Friday will be a mostly dry day with only a stray shower possible in the afternoon.
Highs on Friday will be much warmer with highs topping out in the upper 60’s to mid 70’s.
WEEKEND: This weekend looks to be a very nice spring weekend as the upper-level low will be completely out of the region. The upper-level ridge of high pressure will really start to build into the eastern U.S. This will bring lots of sunshine to the forecast area on Saturday with dry conditions.
Highs on Saturday will be very warm with temperatures topping out in the low 70’s north to possibly upper 70’s south!
Sunday the upper-level ridge will continue to pump northward and a strong area of high pressure aloft will control the weather.
At the surface an area of high pressure that was stuck to the east will also ease its way back west. With two areas of high pressure influencing the weather sunny to mostly sunny skies are forecast for Sunday, with only some high clouds possible.
Temperatures on Sunday will be very nice once again with highs topping out in the low to upper 70’s.
LONG RANGE (NEXT WEEK): The upper-level ridge will start to break down on Monday as a trough pushes southward across the northeastern U.S.
By Monday evening a frontal boundary will be moving southward across the region. This will allow for some rain showers and perhaps a few storms to develop and move across the area through the late afternoon/evening.
Through mid next week high pressure looks to be in control. This before a better organized system moves into the region late next Wednesday into Thursday. That will be our best chance at rain over the next 7 days.
Temperatures may briefly cool off next week as the trough moves in. However, the overall forecast will still call for temperatures to be around average.