Zone 1 & 5 Tue. Forecast: Sunny Today, Freeze Possible Tonight, Warmer Air On The Way! JT.

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT: An area of high pressure continues to move into the forecast area today. This has allowed for dry air and sunshine to overspread zones 1 and 5. As the high continues to move in through the afternoon and evening sunny skies will persist across the area.

NOW

Through the overnight the high will move off to the northeast of the region. However, it will still control our weather. This will result in continuing clear skies and light winds.

These factors will result in a chilly night once again with lows around 30 north to the mid 30’s south. For this reason, there is a freeze watch and some freeze warnings in effect through the overnight into early Wednesday morning.

TONLOW

freeze

WEDNESDAY: At the surface the 1034 mb area of high pressure will still be in control as the southwestern ridge will be in place across the region.

namconus_ref_frzn_us_12

This will result in mostly sunny skies and some warmer temperatures Wednesday. Highs will top out in the mid 50’s north to mid 60’s south.

WEDPAN

The big change in the weather is occurring where we can’t see, up at the mid-levels of the atmosphere. On Wednesday the upper-level trough that brought chilly, unsettled weather to the forecast area will be to the northeast. Behind it the jet stream will start to ridge to the north west of the forecast area.

wedridge

Wednesday night clear to mostly clear skies look to persist over zone 1 with perhaps some clouds building into very southern zone 5 closer to the Ohio River.

Lows Wednesday night into Thursday will be in the mid 30’s north to mid 40’s south.

THURSDAY: The upper-level ridge will continue to build over the region on Thursday. However, to the south of the region there will be an upper-level low that will get cut-off from the main flow of the jet stream.

thuupper

This low will spin to the south of the forecast area on Thursday. This could result in more clouds spreading across both zones 1 and 5 through the day from south to north. However, depending on the placement and timing of the low, some isolated showers could be possible Thursday evening across western zone 5.

thu10pm

Highs on Thursday will be near 60 north to near 70 south.

THUPANEL

FRIDAY: The upper-level low to the south will weaken Thursday night through Friday. As it does it will start to move to the north and closer to the region.

500gof

The strength and placement of the upper-level low will be the key to the forecast on Friday. While I think rain chances will be isolated at best, cloud cover is the biggest thing in question, which would obviously have impacts on the temperature.

Overall for Friday I think the low will weaken and start to move closer to the region. As it does a mix of sun and clouds will occur through the day. However, I think most locations will remain dry on Friday.

FRIPAN

Highs to end the week will be in the mid 60’s to low 70’s.

LONG RANGE (WEEKEND):  The models do vary as we get into the weekend on what happens with the remnants of the upper-level low.

The EURO keeps the disturbance around the region allowing for clouds to continue across the area.

This would result in more cloud cover across zones 1 and 5 on Saturday. Therefore, resulting in cooler temperatures.

However, the GFS and CMC solutions are much quicker exiting the disturbance from the forecast area Saturday. As the low weakens it gets swept up in the jet stream and quickly moves out of the region and the upper-level ridge controls the weather.

500anaom

This would result in more sunshine and warmer temperatures across the forecast area on Saturday. Highs would top out in the upper 60’s to low 70’s.

Right now I do favor the GFS/CMC solution as it seems more plausible that the weak low would get caught up in the Jetstream and exit the region quickly.

Sunday an upper-level ridge will really build northward across the region. This will allow for sunny skies and very warm temperatures to overspread zones 1 and 5.

sunday

Highs on Sunday will be in the 70’s across the forecast zones.

sunday tmep