Zones 1 & 5 Mon. Forecast: Rain & Storms This Aft., Big Pattern Change Starts Wed/Thu.! JT.

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON – OVERNIGHT: A cold front continues moving across Indiana this morning along with a bit of a warm front that is sitting across western Ohio. These fronts have been the focal point for the rain last night and into today.

now

We are seeing a bit of a break in the activity this morning as scattered areas of rain are in place across Indiana and Ohio. However, as the cold front pushes off to the south and southeast this afternoon rain will become more widespread in coverage and intensity looks to pick up as well. By 1-2 PM better chances of rain/heavier rain look to move into the Indianapolis metro.

2pm

Through the afternoon rain and a few storms will progress to the east and southeast into eastern Indiana and western Ohio. By 4-5 PM better rain chances will be in place across southern/eastern Indiana and into western Ohio, then entering Cincinnati.

5pm

Rain and storms will continue to move across the forecast area this evening. By 8-9 PM the cold front will be well off to the forecast zones east and southeast. It will take most of the rainfall with it, only lingering rain will persist across very far east zones 1 and 5 by this time.

9pm

Winds this afternoon and evening will be gusty at times as the cold front moves through the area. Wind gusts of 25-30 mph will be possible.

winds

Clouds look to stick around this afternoon and into the evening. Some sunshine may get through across western and northwestern zone 1 before sunset, but this looks pretty limited.

7-8pm clouds

New rainfall totals through late this evening look to be heaviest from I-70 corridor and southward where a widespread .50-.75” is likely. Localized areas that get under the heavier rain or a t’storm could see 1.10-1.50” of new rainfall through late evening as well.

RAPIN

HRRR

Overnight high pressure will start to build in from the northwest. This will help clouds start to clear out through the overnight.

Lows overnight will be around 30 north to the mid 30’s south.

inlwos

TUESDAY: A strong 1028 mb area of high pressure will build over the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. This will be in control of the weather across zones 1 and 5. With the cool, dry air in place sunny to mostly sunny skies will be in place through the day on Tuesday.

TUESDA

However, even with the sunshine, temperatures will remain somewhat cool with highs in the upper 40s north to mid 50’s south.

TUEPANEL

Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday the area of high pressure will start to move off to the east and northeast, but it will still remain in control of our weather. So clear to mostly clear skies and light winds will remain Tuesday night.

The combination of light winds, high pressure, and clear skies will lead to another chilly overnight. Lows will drop into the low 30’s north to upper 30’s south.

WEDNESDAY: High pressure will remain ridged in at the surface on Wednesday. This will lead to yet another day of sunny to mostly sunny skies.

WEDSURF

However, the biggest story will be the major change that is going to take place at upper levels! While we are starting the week with the upper-level trough which has been in place for some time now, we will see an upper-level ridge start to build in from the west.

Tue Trough
Tue Trough

 

WED Ridge
WED Ridge

This ridge will result in a major pattern change across the forecast area. This will result in moderating/warmer temperatures and also quieter conditions.

WEDPANEL

Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 50’s north to low 60’s south.

THURSDAY – FRIDAY: Thursday and Friday the upper-level ridge will really build into the eastern United States and even southern Canada. This will allow for a much warmer flow of air to move into the region giving us warmer, more seasonal temperatures.

12zthu-12zsat500

Highs on Thursday will be around 60 north to around 70 south.

THUPANEL

Fridays highs will be in the mid 60’s north to low 70s south. So while we will start the week below normal, we will end the week just above normal!

Monday Temp. Anomaly
Monday 4/11 Temp. Anomaly

VS

FRI. 4/15 Temp. Anomaly
FRI. 4/15 Temp. Anomaly

LONG RANGE (WEEKEND): Surface high pressure and the upper-level ridge of high pressure will remain the dominate weather features over the weekend. This will allow for sunny to mostly sunny skies to remain in place across the region.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22

Temperatures will continue to warm with widespread 70’s both days!