Zone 1 & 5 Thu. Forecast: Showers Linger Today, Rain Friday, Freezing Temps. W/ Snow Showers Fri. Night? JT.

Home / Uncategorized / Zone 1 & 5 Thu. Forecast: Showers Linger Today, Rain Friday, Freezing Temps. W/ Snow Showers Fri. Night? JT.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON – OVERNIGHT: Clouds and even a few rain showers have stuck around this morning across zones 1 and 5. However, to the west across Illinois clearing is working into the region.

now

While the clearing will work in, more clouds will likely develop through the day as well, these will be associated with some scattered rain showers.

4-5PM CLDS

Through the day an upper-level piece of energy will move through the region. This coupled with steep lapse rates will generate scattered rain showers.

today500

While showers do look to be possible through the afternoon, these will be scattered, so it won’t be an all-day rain by any means. The latest HRRR model shows the scattered showers by 5 PM across Indiana and Ohio.

5pm

Through the evening the upper air disturbance will move out of the forecast area and we will lose the instability from daytime heating. This will allow rain showers to quickly fade after the sun sets.

The overnight hours will be dry across zones 1 and 5 with maybe a very slight chance at a light shower or sprinkle.

Lows overnight will be in the upper 20’s north to upper 30’s south. For this reason, a Freeze Watch is in place across portions of the forecast zones in both Indiana and Ohio through Friday morning.

freezewatchin

FRIDAY: Friday morning a surface boundary looks to be moving into western Indiana. This will create some isolated to scattered rain showers that will move into western Indiana around 8-9 AM.

FRI9AM

Through the morning hours this area of rain may intensify and grow in coverage thanks to an upper-level area of vorticity that will be lingering in the forecast area.

By 11 AM the NAM 4 km shows the uptick in coverage and somewhat in intensity across zones 1 and 5 in Indiana. Better chances of rain showers look to impact the Indianapolis area around 10-11 AM Friday morning.

FRI11AM

Through mid-day into early afternoon this area of rain will continue to move off to the east and northeast across eastern Indiana and into Ohio. Better rain chances look to reach western Ohio and the Cincinnati area by 1-2 PM.

FRI2PM

Highs on Friday will be in the mid 40’s north to mid 50’s south. Winds will be strong with gusts of 30-40 mph out of the northwest.

FRIPANEL

Through the afternoon and evening scattered rain will remain possible across zones 1 and 5. This will be as more upper-level energy and impressive lapse rates continue across the region. By 7-8 PM you can see the ongoing areas of rain depicted by the NAM 4 km model.

FRI7PM

New rainfall totals through Friday night looks to average around .15-30″ across the region. However, heavier amounts of .60-.90″ can’t be ruled out locally.

NAM 4 km
NAM 4 km

 

NAM 12 km
NAM 12 km

Through the overnight Friday into Saturday there will be two upper level vorticity maxes streaking through the region. I do think with this intense upward motion some precipitation will linger across Indiana and into Ohio. If this were to occur, some light snow showers would be possible through the overnight.

FRINIGHT

While no serious accumulation is forecast from the snow showers. I won’t totally rule out a coating to a dusting in some places. While this will not impact roadways, accumulations on cars, roofs, and grassy areas is not out of the question.

Lows Friday night will be in the mid 20’s north to mid 30’s south.

WEEKEND: Saturday an area of high pressure will move into the forecast area. This will keep conditions cold and mostly sunny to start the weekend. While I won’t completely rule out a very isolated shower Saturday (being that we will still be under the upper level trough). The high will really hinder any widespread showers. Anything that should develop will be very light and brief in nature.

SAT

Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 30’s north to around 50 south.

SATPAN

Saturday night mostly clear conditions look to continue across eastern portions of zones 1 and 5. However, to the west clouds will likely be on the increase. Clouds would actually be a good thing Saturday night as they would likely hold temperatures just above freezing.

Lows Saturday night into Sunday will be in the low 20’s east where clear skies are in place. However, farther west where clouds do come in, temperatures will be in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. With that being said another chance at a freeze will come Saturday night across most of the zone forecast area.

Sunday a front will start to approach the forecast zones from the north and northwest. It looks like it will be slow to move in so current thinking is, most of Sunday will be dry. However, by late afternoon into early evening rain and perhaps a few storms look to creep into northern portions of zone 1 in Indiana as a cold front sags southward.

SUNPANEL

Highs on Sunday will be warmer, topping out in the low 50’s north to mid 60’s south.

Sunday night into Monday the low will move to the north. As it does the associated cold front will start to move farther south. Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase across the region from north to south along the front.

SUNDYANIGHT

MONDAY: The cold front does look to be relatively slow in exiting the forecast region Monday. For this reason, rain and t’storm chances will linger through most of the day.

MONDAY

Highs on Monday will be in the mid 50’s to upper 60’s. However, temperatures will be highly dependent on the placement/timing of the cold front.

7 DAY FORECAST

FRIDAY: PARTLY SUNNY EAST TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEST, 30% CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S NORTH TO MID 50’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 8-16 MPH, GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

SATURDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY, 10% CHANCE AT AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30’S NORTH TO LOW 50’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: CLEAR EAST, CLOUDS INCREASING WEST, 10% CHANCEO OF RAIN SHOWERS WEST/NORTHWEST. LOWS IN THE LOW 20’S EAST TO NEAR 40 WEST.

SUNDAY: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF PM RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S NORTH TO MID 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 35 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A 50% CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40’S TO MID 50’S.

MONDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50-60% CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S TO UPPER 60’S. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS CLEARING WEST TO EAST, RAIN ENDS.  LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S TO LOW 40’S.

TUESDAY: SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40’S TO UPPER 50’S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: CLEAR AND COLD. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY, CLOUDS LATE? HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S TO MID 50’S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S TO MID 40’S.

THURSDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR NORTH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SOUTH, ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID 30’S NORTH TO MID 40’S SOUTH.