AFTERNOON – OVERNIGHT: A few areas of rain and even a couple of thunderstorms moved across extreme northern portions of zone one this morning. However, the main area of rain is still out to the west across Illinois and into Missouri. These areas of rain are associated with a warm and cold front that are in place to the west of zones 1 and 5.
While a few isolated showers could develop ahead of the front across central Indiana late this morning to around mid-day. However, most places will remain dry.
While the leading edge of the rain to the west will arrive in very western zone 1 around 1-2 PM, another area of rain and some storms look to develop across southern Indiana around 2 PM or so.
Through the afternoon the front will start to occlude as the cold front catches up with the warm front. As this happens rain and storm coverage will increase across Indiana and into western Ohio. While scattered rain will be present through the afternoon, more concentrated rain looks to be in place by 4-5 PM across Indiana and western Ohio. This would include Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Bloomington, and many other cities.
By 8-9 PM the front will be exiting out of Indiana and into Ohio. However, rain and storms will remain likely from Indianapolis eastward.
With some instability and strong upper level winds it isn’t out of the question some gusty/strong storms will be possibe through the evening, especially along the front.
Winds today will remain strong with the frontal passage. Gusts of 40-50 mph will be possible at times! For that reason, a wind advisory is in place until 8 PM for most of the forecast area.
Through the overnight isolated to widely scattered storms will continue across zones 1 and 5. Around 12-1 AM a little bit of an uptick in coverage may occur as a second frontal boundary advances south and southeastward.
Through the overnight this front will advance to the east of the forecast zones.
Lows overnight will be in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.
New rainfall totals through Thursday morning will average between .30-.60” in many locations. However, if you get under a heavy pocket of rain or a thunderstorm localized areas of .75-1” or so can’t be ruled out.
THURSDAY: Some isolated rain showers will remain through the morning hours on Thursday. However, these will be light in nature.
By 12 PM Thursday more rain showers will develop across zone 1, especially across Indiana. This will be thanks to upper level energy moving through the area along with some steep lapse rates (instability).
Through the afternoon additional scattered areas of rain and perhaps an isolated t’storm will continue to develop across zones 1 and 5 in Indiana and Ohio. While not everyone will see rain Thursday afternoon, some quick bursts of rain do look to occur under the heavier pockets.
Scattered areas of rain will continue through the evening. However, as the sun sets and we lose heating/instability rain will start to fade. By 10-11 PM rain chances will be on the decrease.
Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 40’s north to mid/upper 50’s south. Winds will remain breezy with gusts of 25-35 mph possible.
Thursday night looks to be mostly dry with perhaps a very isolated, light rain shower. Overall, many places will be dry.
Lows will be chilly, bottoming out in the upper 20’s north to near 40 south.
FRIDAY: We will start off Friday dry across zones 1 and 5, possibly with even some sunshine. However, we will be watching another upper-level vorticity max. move to the southeast, along with a developing weak area of surface low pressure into Ohio.
Isolated rain showers will develop by 1-2 PM across Indiana.
By 4-5 PM isolated to widely scattered rain showers will continue across Indiana and into western Ohio. Possibly impacting the Cincinnati area around this time.
As the upper level disturbance moves into the area and the surface low strengthens and becomes closed off more concentrated/heavier rainfall will focus itself closer to the low and likely the jet streak.
While the NAM does show the heavier rain to the regions east Friday evening, it would make more sense to me that the rain would be placed farther west across Indiana given this model run.
The reason being, the enhanced lift from the upper level vorticity max and the 500 mb jet streak would be farther to the west across western to central Indiana. If this solution is correct then this would be the more logical area for the low and heavier rain to occur. So don’t be shocked if better rain chances shift into Indiana Friday evening.
Highs on Friday will be in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s. Winds will remain strong with gusts of 30-40 mph possible.
Temperatures Friday evening will drop pretty quickly. With some moisture still left across the region it is not out of the question some snow could fall, especially across the northern half of zone 1 in Indiana and western Ohio.
Right now I don’t expect much, if anything, in the way of accumulations. I won’t totally rule out a coating or a dusting in places on roofs, cars, and grassy surfaces. However, roadways don’t look to be impacted.
Late Friday night into Saturday the rain and snow will move out of the zones and an area of high pressure will move into the forecast region from the northwest. This area of high pressure will help erode at least some of the clouds.
With skies clearing and winds likely weakening temperatures will once again fall below freezing in locations. Overnight lows will be in the low 20’s north to mid 30’s south
WEEKEND: Friday night through Saturday an area of high pressure will move into the forecast zones. As it does this will help clear out clouds and really limit precipitation chances Saturday. While a few isolated sprinkles or a light shower will be possible, Saturday looks to be mostly sunny and dry.
Temperatures will remain chilly to start the weekend with highs in the upper 30’s north to low 50’s south. Gusty winds will still be possible despite the area of high pressure. Gusts up to 35 mph or so will be possible.
Saturday night the high will start to move off to the west. However, it still looks to remain in control for the most part. Some clouds may increase from the west across Illinois, but overall clear skies will remain.
This will make for another cold night for April with lows in the low 20’s to mid 30’s. So another possibility for freezing conditions will exist. The only “Light at the end of the tunnel” so to speak is, the models are a little quicker with the high exiting. If this trend continues and more cloud cover should be realized, then more widespread temperatures above freezing will be possible.
Sunday an area of low pressure will develop to the west. As it does a warm front will be in place across portions of the region. This will allow clouds and some rain to develop through the day. While i’m not expecting a total washout, isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible.
Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 40’s north to around 60 in southern portions of Illinois. The spring winds will continue to be relentless, as wind gusts of 30-35 mph will be possible.
7 DAY FORECAST
THURSDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTHWEST. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER, PERHAPS A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER NORTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.
FRIDAY: MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, 30% CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH IN THE MID 40’S NORTH TO MID 50’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 8-16 MPH, GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOW 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.
SATURDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY, 10% CHANCE AT AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30’S NORTH TO LOW 50’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: CLEAR EAST, CLOUDS INCREASING WEST. LOWS IN THE LOW 20’S EAST TO MID 30’S WEST.
SUNDAY: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF PM RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S NORTH NEAR 60 IN SOUTHERN IL. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 35 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S TO LOW 50’S.
MONDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50-60% CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S TO UPPER 60’S.
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS CLEARING WEST TO EAST, RAIN ENDS. LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S TO MID 40’S.
TUESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40’S TO UPPER 50’S.
TUESDAY NIGHT: CLEAR AND COLD. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S TO UPPER 30’S.
WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY, CLOUDS LATE? HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S TO LOW 50’S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CLEAR NORTH, INCREASING CLOUDS SOUTH. LOWS IN THE 30’S.