Zone 6 & 7 Tue. Forecast: Clouds Move In, Rain Wed., More Freeze Chances Too! JT.

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON – OVERNIGHT: High pressure is in control of the weather this morning across zones 6 and 7. However, this will move out of the region through the day allowing for more unsettled weather to return.

CURRENT

The morning has started clear across the forecast zones with high pressure in control. However, as it moves out through the day the low to the west will start to become the dominant factor. This will create increasing clouds by early to mid-afternoon across Illinois.

5-6pmclds

This evening a warm front will be moving in from the west, while aloft a piece of energy will be moving through northern portions of zone 6 and zone 7. By 6-7 PM this evening that energy will help spark a couple of rain showers across portions of zone 7 and maybe northern zone 6.

7PM

Through the overnight chances of a few rain showers will remain, but as that upper level energy exits the area, most of the precipitation will likely end and move out with it.

Lows overnight will be in the mid 40’s north to around 50 to the southwest.

WEDNESDAY: Through the overnight we will be watching a frontal boundary move closer to the region. This will bring a better chance of more widespread rain Wednesday. By 7-8 AM Wednesday morning rain and perhaps a couple t’storms will be moving into the forecast zones ahead of an occluding warm front.

WED7AM

Through the morning into mid-day that front will push eastward into Illinois and more rain/storms will develop along the front as it does.

WED12PM

Through the afternoon the forward propagating cold front may end up catching the occluding front and overtaking it. While this won’t have a major impact on the overall forecast, it would allow for more widespread rain across the region. By 3-4 PM Wednesday the NAM 4 km is picks up on this well.

WED4PM

Highs on Wednesday will be in the low 50’s to low 60’s. With the cold front moving through winds will be strong with 40-50 mph wind gusts possible at times!

WEDPAN

By 7-8 PM Wednesday evening the cold front will exit off to the east of the zone forecast area. While some isolated to very widely scattered areas of rain may linger behind, the main area of rain/storms will be off to the areas east.

WED8PM

Through the overnight a few light showers may be present early, but as drier air works in most of those will dry out with only a few sprinkles will remain through the overnight.

Lows will be in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s.

New rainfall totals across zones 6 and 7 through early Thursday morning will likely average between .30-.60”. However, places that do get under the heavier pockets of rain or a thunderstorm could see 1” or so locally.

GFS
GFS

 

NAM 4 KM
NAM 4 KM

THURSDAY: While a few showers could be in place very early on Thursday, most places will be dry in the morning. However, we will be under an upper-level trough and quiet weather doesn’t last long in that pattern.

Through the day on Thursday we will watch a wave of low pressure at the surface move to the southeast across the Great Lakes region. This will move into the forecast area through the afternoon allowing for rain chances to increase across zones 6 and 7 by 3-4 PM.

THU4PM

Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 40’s north to near 60 south. Winds will remain breezy with gusts of 25 mph possible.

THUPAN

Scattered areas of rain will continue through the evening. By 10-11 PM rain chances will be decreasing as the surface disturbance and upper air disturbance exit the forecast region.

THU10PM

Thursday night into Friday there will continue to be some weak upper level disturbances that move through the upper level trough. This will keep some isolated to widely scattered chances of some rain and/or snow showers in the forecast Thursday night into Friday.

Lows will be in the upper 20’s north to upper 30’s south.

FRIDAY: The upper level trough will remain in place on Friday. There will be another upper-level disturbance moving across the region. However, current placement would take it to the east of Illinois.

500MB FRI

If this were to verify, precipitation chances would be pretty limited and mostly dry conditions would be in place during the day on Friday.

FRIDAY

Highs on Friday will be in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s. Winds will once again be strong with gusts of 30-40 mph possible.

FRIPAN

WEEKEND: A large area of high pressure looks to be in control of the weather Saturday. While this will allow for more sunshine to get through, it will also keep temperatures pretty chilly. Highs on Saturday will only be in the upper 30’s to upper 40’s.

SAT

Saturday night with the high pressure in control temperatures look to drop off pretty sharply with lows in the low 20’s to low 30’s. So another hard freeze will be possible.

Sunday the high pressure system will start to exit off to the east and an area of low pressure will start to develop to the west. Sunday afternoon some isolated rain chances look to creep into the forecast, but the heavier precipitation looks to hold off until later in the evening/overnight.

SUNDAY

Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 40’s north to near 60 south.

7 DAY FORECAST

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 70% CHANCE OF RAIN AND A FEW STORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO LOW 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 12-24 MPH, GUSTING FROM 40-50 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER. LOWS IN THE MID 30’S NORTH TO MID 40’S SOUTH.

THURSDAY: CLOUDS AND SUN WITH 10-20% CHANCE OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTHWEST. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER, PERHAPS A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER NORTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO UPPER 30’S SOUTH.

FRIDAY: MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, 20-30% CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH IN THE MID 40’S NORTH TO MID 50’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 8-16 MPH, GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOW 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

SATURDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY, 10% CHANCE AT AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30’S NORTH TO UPPER 40’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 9-18 MPH, GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20’S EAST TO LOW 30’S SOUTHWEST.

SUNDAY: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF PM RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S NORTH NEAR 60 IN SOUTHERN IL.

SUNDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED RAIN POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S TO LOW 50’S.

MONDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH 30-40% CHANCE OF SCATTERED RAIN AND STORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S TO LOW 60’S.

MONDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY, RAIN COMES TO AN END? LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO UPPER 30’S.

TUESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S TO MID 50’S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.