Zone 1 & 5 Tue. Forecast: A Few Showers Tonight, Rain & Storms Wed., Freeze Once Again Possible To End The Week. JT.

Home / Uncategorized / Zone 1 & 5 Tue. Forecast: A Few Showers Tonight, Rain & Storms Wed., Freeze Once Again Possible To End The Week. JT.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON – OVERNIGHT: An area of high pressure remains in control of the weather across zones 1 and 5. This allowed for temperatures last night to fall into the 20’s in many locations. It has also given way to lots of sunshine across Indiana and Ohio.

CURRENT

Through the day the high will move off to the east. As it does clouds will start to build into the forecast zones through the afternoon.

5-6pmclds

By 9-10 PM an upper level piece of energy will be moving across the northern portions of zone 1. This will create enough lift in the environment to get some rain showers going from Indianapolis northward this evening. However, I do think these will be isolated to very widely scattered in nature.

10pm

Through the overnight, clouds will stick around, along with perhaps a couple isolated rain showers. However, I think those will be very sporadic and light in intensity.

Lows overnight will fall to around 30 north to around 40 south.

WEDNESDAY: A few showers may be around for rush hour Wednesday morning, but the main rain chances will still be off to the west along an occluding warm front and cold front.

Through the morning, rain chances will become more scattered. By 12 PM Wednesday scattered areas of rain will be in place. The main cold front will still be out across Illinois with the main areas of precipitation still west of the IL/IN state line.

WED12PM

Through early afternoon the rain will move eastward into Indiana. Right now timing would place the larger area of rain in the Indianapolis metro around 3-4 PM.

WED4PM

Highs on Wednesday will be in the low 50’s north to low 60’s south. Winds will be very strong at times on Wednesday with 40-50 mph wind gusts possible!

WEDPAN

Through the afternoon the cold front will advance eastward. By 5-6 PM rain and some thunderstorms will be in place across a large chunk of Indiana. More scattered storms will be in place across very eastern Indiana and into western Ohio/Cincinnati.

WED5PM

By 7-8 PM the cold front looks to be moving through the Indianapolis area with rain and some storms continuing.

WED7PM

 By 10-11 PM the rain and storms will be moving into very eastern Indiana and through Ohio. The cold front will be in place across western Ohio and across the Cincinnati area. Farther west a few rain showers will be lingering across Indiana, but overall these look to be light in nature.

WED11PM

Through the overnight the upper-level trough will move in form the north. As it does some upper-level energy will move in with it. This will keep isolated to widely scattered rain shower chances in the forecast Wednesday night into Thursday.

Lows overnight will be in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s.

New rainfall totals through early Thursday look to average around .30-.60”. However, places that do get under some of the heavier rain or storms could see 1-1.4” locally.

NAM 4 KM
NAM 4 KM

 

NAM 12 KM
NAM 12 KM

THURSDAY: The upper-level trough will remain in place across the region on Thursday. With this in place we will continue to see pieces of upper-level energy break off and move through the trough. As they do, it will help create continuing isolated to scattered shower chances through the day on Thursday.

500MB

Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 40’s north to mid 50’s south. Winds will be breezy at times with gusts of 25 mph.

THUPAN

By late in the day a surface wave of low pressure will start to move closer to the region from the northwest. As it does, better rain chances will enter into the forecast by 10-11 PM or so Thursday night. While current model data would support better rain chances across western Indiana, it’s a forecast we will have to fine-tune.

THU10PM

Thursday night into Friday the surface low and attendant rain will move to the southeast across central/southern Indiana and perhaps into southwestern Ohio by 2-3 AM.

Lows Thursday night into Friday will fall into the upper 20’s north to upper 30’s south. I do think most of the precipitation will fall as rain Thursday night. However, if moisture can stick around late enough, some snow showers can’t totally be ruled out.

FRIDAY: Any precipitation that is left from the wave of low pressure that moved through late Thursday night looks to exit around 5-7 AM Friday morning. This will pave the way for some dry time Friday morning through mid-day.

FRI5AM

FRI8AM

However, to the northwest an upper-level vorticity max will be headed southeast towards the region, bringing more unsettled weather with it.

By 1-2 PM some isolated showers will be possible, mainly from Indianapolis northward. I would say about a 10% chance of rain at this point in time via the latest model data.

As we approach the 5 PM hour the 500 mb vorticity max will be moving into Indiana from the northwest. This will help more scattered areas of rain to get going across both zones 1 and 5 in Indiana and western Ohio.

FRI5PM

Highs on Friday will be in the mid 40’s north to mid 50’s south. However, winds will once again be very strong with gusts of 30-40 mph possible.

FRIPAN

Through Friday evening the upper-level disturbance will continue through the forecast area. I think the better chances for precipitation will exit the region with it through the late evening.

With that said another disturbance looks to bring more precipitation to the zones overnight. However, with temperatures falling into the low 20’s to mid 30’s, this would fall as snow!

FRI8PM

While some of the past model runs have hinted at some accumulating snow overnight Friday into Saturday (mainly across northern zone 1) it is still something we will have to fine-tune as we get closer to the forecast period. Regardless, any snow that would accumulate would likely do so on roofs, cars, and grassy areas. I doubt much, if any, will accumulate on the roadways.

WEEKEND: A large area of high pressure looks to be in control of the weather Saturday. While this will allow for more sunshine to get through, it will also keep temperatures pretty chilly. Highs on Saturday will only be in the upper 30’s to upper 40’s.

SAT

Saturday night with the high pressure in control temperatures look to drop off pretty sharply with lows in the low 20’s to low 30’s. So another hard freeze will be possible.

Sunday the high pressure system will start to exit off to the east and an area of low pressure will start to develop to the west. Sunday afternoon some isolated rain chances look to creep into the forecast, but the heavier precipitation looks to hold off until later in the evening/overnight.

SUNDAY

Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 40’s north to near 60 south.

7 DAY FORECAST

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 70% CHANCE OF RAIN AND A FEW STORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO LOW 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 12-24 MPH, GUSTING FROM 40-50 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER. LOWS IN THE MID 30’S NORTH TO MID 40’S SOUTH.

THURSDAY: CLOUDS AND SUN WITH 10-20% CHANCE OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTHWEST. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER, PERHAPS A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER NORTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO UPPER 30’S SOUTH.

FRIDAY: MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, 20-30% CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH IN THE MID 40’S NORTH TO MID 50’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 8-16 MPH, GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOW 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

SATURDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY, 10% CHANCE AT AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30’S NORTH TO UPPER 40’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 9-18 MPH, GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20’S EAST TO LOW 30’S SOUTHWEST.

SUNDAY: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF PM RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S NORTH NEAR 60 IN SOUTHERN IL.

SUNDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED RAIN POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S TO LOW 50’S.

MONDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH 30-40% CHANCE OF SCATTERED RAIN AND STORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S TO LOW 60’S.

MONDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY, RAIN COMES TO AN END? LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO UPPER 30’S.

TUESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S TO MID 50’S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.