AFTERNOON – OVENRIGHT: A mix of clouds and sun are in place across zones 6 and 7 this morning. As we progress through the morning into the afternoon we will continue with a mix of clouds and sunshine.
Some unsettled weather will remain through the daytime hours today. This is thanks to an upper level trough that is in place across the Great Lakes region. Today an upper level vorticity maximum associated with the trough will be moving through the region.
While most of the day will be dry across the region a few isolated showers may be possible across northern zone 7. However, better chances of some isolated to widely scattered rain showers will develop after 1-2 PM this afternoon, mainly in northern zone 6 and zone 7.
While a few isolated showers will remain early into the overnight I expect these to fade pretty quickly as we lose the heat of the day. Most of the overnight looks to be dry across the forecast zones.
Lows overnight will fall into the low 30’s north to low 40’s south.
WEEKEND: The upper level trough will remain in place on Saturday. Through the daytime hours another upper level piece of energy will move out of the western Great Lakes through northern Indiana and Ohio.
While this won’t move directly over the forecast zones it could be enough to spark an isolated shower or two over northern zone 7 around mid-day. However, I think those will be extremely isolated and most locations will be dry Saturday. In fact, I do think there will be much more sunshine than rain on Saturday.
The biggest story for Saturday will be the winds. Sustained winds of 10-20 mph with gusts up to 50 mph will be possible!
Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 40’s north to around 60 south.
Saturday night most of the clouds will fade out and winds will start to slack off. Without any clouds to hold heat in or winds to mix the air, temperatures will really fall. Lows overnight will drop into the mid 20’s north to mid 30’s south. So there is that potential of a freeze in locations.
Sunday will prove to be the best day of the weekend. This will be as an area of high pressure tries to ridge in from the south and an area of low pressure start to move in from the north.
This will push the upper level trough back north allowing for sunny to mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures to overspread the forecast zones.
Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 50’s to mid 60’s. While winds won’t be as strong, but gusts of 25-30 mph will remain possible.
Sunday night the area of low pressure to the northwest will take control of the weather over the zone forecast area as the low moves to the southeast.
As the low moves southeast it will bring a cold front across the forecast area. Right now it I will all for some isolated to widely scattered areas of rain across northern zone 7 late into the overnight, but most precipitation looks to hold off until Monday.
Rain totals through late Sunday night will be very meager with .10-.20” possible in isolated locations with most places receiving much less.
Lows Sunday night will be in the low 40’s north to low 50’s south.
MONDAY: The cold front will continue to the south and southeast through the day on Monday. As it does some isolated to perhaps widely scattered areas of rain will develop along the front through the morning hours and spread south/southeast across the zones through the afternoon hours.
The EURO model has very isolated showers along the front on Monday, this while the NAM has pretty much no precipitation. With that mentioned, I will not be shocked to see rain chances taken out of the forecast for Monday.
Highs on Monday will be very dependent on the frontal passage. To the north of the cold front temperatures will only warm into the low to mid 50’s. However, farther south where the front will not move through until late in the day, highs will be in the 60’s.
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK: Tuesday looks to be mostly dry, but better rain chances look to come in late Tuesday and Wednesday with a larger storm system.
Behind that an upper-level trough will build into the forecast region by late next week. This will bring in much cooler weather along with more unsettled weather.
Temperatures to start April look to be much below average.
7 DAY FORECAST
SATURDAY: MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS 30% CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, WINDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH, WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD. LOWS WELL BELOW FREEZING IN AREAS, DIPPING INTO THE MID 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.
SUNDAY: SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S EAST TO MID 60’S WEST. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A 20% CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER NORTH. LOWS IN THE LOW 40’S NORTH TO LOW 50’S SOUTH.
MONDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN AND A FEW T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: DECREASING CLOUDS, RAIN ENDS. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.
TUESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY, COLDER, RAIN FAR WEST? HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S TO MID 50’S. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN, POSSIBLY SNOW NORTHEAST? LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S TO MID 40’S.
WEDNESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN/STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S NORTH TO MID 60’S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY, RAIN AND STORMS ENDING. LOWS IN THE MID 30’S TO MID 40’S.
THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 40’S TO LOW 50’S.
THURSDAY NIGHT: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS? LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.
FRIDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER. HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S NORTH TO LOW 50’S SOUTH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S NORTH TO LOW 30’S SOUTH.