Fri. Zone 1 & 5 Forecast: Iso. Rain Today & Sat., Nice Sunday, Unsettled Next Week. JT.

Home / Uncategorized / Fri. Zone 1 & 5 Forecast: Iso. Rain Today & Sat., Nice Sunday, Unsettled Next Week. JT.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON – OVENRIGHT: The cold front that brought rain and t’storms to the forecast zones last night has since moved off to the east of the region. As it did the precipitation and most of the clouds went with it, as we have started the day off sunny to mostly sunny across the forecast zones.

noww

Today the main weather feature will be an upper level trough and piece of upper level energy that will be moving across the forecast area. This will help generate more clouds and some isolated to widely scattered rain showers today.

today500mb

A couple isolated showers are currently ongoing across very northwestern zone 1. However, as we progress through the day more widespread showers will become likely. By 2-3 PM you can see those showers per the latest HRRR model. While showers do look more likely from Indianapolis north, more isolated chances will exist across southern zone 1 and zone 6 as well.

2PM

While rain shower chances will persist through the evening, once we head into the night-time hours and lose the daytime heating, they will start to fade out. By 10 PM only a few isolated showers look to be left across Indiana.

10PM

Any accumulation from these showers will be on the low side. Up across northern zone 1 .10-.30” or so can’t be ruled out. However, most places will see far less rainfall.

TOFDAYRAIN

Overnight showers will end and clouds will fade out once again. Lows will be chilly bottoming out in the low 30’s north to near 40 south.

WEEKEND: An upper trough will remain in place on Saturday. Another upper level vorticity maximum will move to the southeast across northern Indiana and into Ohio through the day.

500MB

While this won’t cause any major issues, it will spark more isolated to scattered rain showers across the forecast area.

By 12-1 PM Saturday afternoon some rain chances will become possible across northern zone 1 as the piece of energy moves through.

SAT1PM

Through the afternoon scattered areas of rain will remain possible across both zones 1 and 5. However, better chances will likely lie closer to the vort. max across eastern Indiana and into Ohio. By 5 PM the models do pick up on that better chance of rain across those areas.

SAT5PM

New rainfall Saturday looks to be around .10-.20” with some isolated areas closer to the vorticity max. possibly seeing up to .40”. Regardless, I’m not expecting any real soaking rains.

SATRAIN

Highs on Saturday will be in the mid 40’s north to around 60 south.

SATPAN

Winds may end up being the biggest story on Saturday. Very strong winds will be in place across the region with gusts of 40-50 mph possible!

Temperatures in afternoon into the overnight will drop pretty quickly. Lows overnight will be below freezing in some spots. Lows will drop into the mid 20’s north to mid 30’s south.

SATNIGHT

I will mention, if a little moisture can stick around late evening into the early overnight I won’t rule out a few snowflakes. However, they will be just that…few. No accumulation is expected.

SAT11PM

Sunday will be the nicest day of the weekend. This will be as an area of high pressure ridges in from the south ahead of a developing area of low pressure to the northwest.

SUN

With the high in place it will cause the trough to retreat northward some. This will setup for a sunny and warmer end to the weekend.

SUNPANN

Highs on Sunday will be in the low 50’s east to around 60 west. Winds will remain breezy at times on Sunday with gusts of 25-30 mph possible.

MONDAY: The area of low pressure to our northwest on Sunday will move to the southeast. As it does it will bring a cold front through the forecast area very late Sunday night through Monday.

Along the front isolated to perhaps scattered rain could develop and impact zones 1 and 5 on Monday. Right now models are not overly impressed with rain chances. The EURO only has isolated showers, while the NAM/GFS has almost no precipitation.

MONRAIN
NAM 12 KM

For now, we will call for isolated showers or a storm possible (10-20% chance). However, I won’t be surprised if models dry the precipitation up over the next several runs.

Highs on Monday will be dependent on where the cold front is located. Places where the cold front moves through early will only see highs in the low to mid 50’s. However, farther south where the cold front doesn’t move through until late afternoon/evening highs will warm into the mid to upper 60’s.

MONPANN

Winds on Monday will remain strong with gusts of 20-30 mph possible.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK: Tuesday looks to be mostly dry, but better rain chances look to come in late Tuesday and Wednesday with a larger storm system.

GFSNEXTWEEK

Behind that an upper-level trough will build into the forecast region by late next week. This will bring in much cooler weather along with more unsettled weather.

500TROUGH

Temperatures to start April look to be much below average.

7 DAY FORECAST

SATURDAY: MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS 30% CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, WINDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH, WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD. LOWS WELL BELOW FREEZING IN AREAS, DIPPING INTO THE MID 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

SUNDAY: SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S EAST TO MID 60’S WEST. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A 20% CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER NORTH. LOWS IN THE LOW 40’S NORTH TO LOW 50’S SOUTH.

MONDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN AND A FEW T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: DECREASING CLOUDS, RAIN ENDS. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.

TUESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY, COLDER, RAIN FAR WEST? HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S TO MID 50’S. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN, POSSIBLY SNOW NORTHEAST? LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S TO MID 40’S.

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN/STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S NORTH TO MID 60’S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY, RAIN AND STORMS ENDING. LOWS IN THE MID 30’S TO MID 40’S.

THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 40’S TO LOW 50’S.

THURSDAY NIGHT: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS? LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

FRIDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER. HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S NORTH TO LOW 50’S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S NORTH TO LOW 30’S SOUTH.