Zone 1 & 5 Thu. Forecast: Strong/Severe Storms Poss. This Evening, Unsettled FRI/SAT, Nicer Sunday. JT.

Home / Uncategorized / Zone 1 & 5 Thu. Forecast: Strong/Severe Storms Poss. This Evening, Unsettled FRI/SAT, Nicer Sunday. JT.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON – OVERNIGHT: After rain and storms moved across the state through the overnight, we are seeing a break in the precipitation as expected this morning. However, we are still pretty locked in with clouds for the time being. However, to the west there is clearing in Illinois. This will be working into the forecast zones today.

clearing

While rain is ending and sunshine will be poking through this afternoon we will still be watching a cold front to our northwest. This cold front will be the focus of our attention this evening as it moves through the state bringing with it the chance of severe weather.

With clouds clearing in Illinois the confidence level of severe weather is increasing. As that sunshine heats the environment it will allow for the atmosphere to destabilize once again through the daytime hours. The latest forecast models do depict CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/Kg across the southern half or so of Indiana, with possibly up to 2000 J/Kg across very southern Indiana. While values are not as impressive as yesterday’s forecasts, they are still more than enough to support the development of severe weather.  

C

Winds aloft will be very powerful this afternoon and evening. At 500 mb, winds will be surging in from the southwest at 95-110 mph! Lower in the environment, 850 mb winds will be moving in from the southwest at 50-60 mph. With the increasing winds with height it will create some impressive amounts of shear (or spin) in the environment which will also be supportive of severe storms.

500MBWINDS

The Storm Prediction Center does have Indiana and very western Ohio in a slight risk for severe weather for now. Depending on how fast the atmosphere destabilizes with the sunshine, an enhanced risk could be needed. Main risks today will be damaging winds and hail. However, a few isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out, especially if higher end instability should be achieved.

IN_swody1 (1)

Regarding timing, storms will develop to the west and northwest of zones 1 and 5 this afternoon and race across Illinois.

Around 2-3 PM the main area of storms will be to the west still. However, across southern Indiana a complex of rain and some storms will be moving into that area. Some of these will have the potential to be on the strong to severe side as well.

2PM

By 4-5 PM the main cold front and associated storms will be in place across the IN/IL state line. These will be quickly advancing eastward.

4PM

Storms will quickly race east impacting the Indianapolis area around 5-6 PM.

6PM

By 7-8 PM storms will be in place across western Ohio into southern Indiana.

8PM

As we get into the 11 PM – 12 AM hours the front and thunderstorms will be advancing off to the forecast regions east and southeast. However, there may be a few lingering rain showers behind the front.  

12AM

Regarding new rainfall totals, .25-.50” looks to be a pretty good bet across zones 1 and 5 through late tonight. However, places that get under some of the strong to severe storms could see locally more than that. Both the NAM 4km and HRRR show some localized areas of 1-1.5” possible, especially across southern zone 1 and zone 5.

NAM 4 KM
NAM 4 KM

 

HRRR
HRRR

Initially overnight, a few light rain showers may linger, but these will dry up through the night.

Lows tonight will fall into the upper 30’s north to upper 40’s south.

FRIDAY: Conditions on Friday will start dry across the forecast zones. However, with a trough in place at upper levels it will keep conditions unsettled to end the week.

By 12 PM rain showers will start to develop and move into the state.

FRI12PM

These pesky showers will continue to linger through the afternoon and evening. Right now better chances of rain look to be across northern zone 1 on Friday.

FRI4PM

Highs on Friday will be topping out in the low 50’s to low 60’s. Winds will be strong at times with gusts up to 35 mph possible.

FRIPAN

Overnight Friday into Saturday looks to be dry, but cool.

Lows overnight will be in the low 30’s north to low 40’s south.

WEEKEND: On Saturday we will watch another piece of energy move in at 500 mb and progress to the southeast across the region.

500

As it does, it will spark some rain showers across zone 1 and northern zone 5 on Saturday.

However, the biggest story for Saturday will be the winds! Sustained winds of 12-25 mph with gusts of 45-55 mph will be possible!

SATPANN

Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 40’s north to near 60 south.

Saturday night into Sunday any rain showers will fade away, clouds will move out, and winds will start to slack off. This will be a good recipe for very chilly temperatures Saturday night.

Lows overnight Saturday into Sunday are forecast to be in the mid 20’s north to mid 30’s south.

Sunday an area of high pressure will ridge in ahead of a low pressure system. This will allow for mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures.

sunpress

Highs will be in the upper 40’s north to around 60 south. Winds will remain breezy though, with gusts up to 25 mph.

SUNDAYPANN

SUNDAY NIGHT – MONDAY: By late Sunday night into the day time hours Monday an area of low pressure will start to approach the region from the northwest. As it does it will bring isolated to scattered rain chances with it.

gfs---midwest-102-C-mslpthkpcp_white

While it does look like it will be a damp start to the week, current forecast guidance would suggest the rain will be out of the region late Monday afternoon/evening.

Highs on Monday will be very different from north to south. Where the front moves through early on in the day, high will likely only be in the low to mid 50’s. However, farther south where the front moves through late in the day, highs could reach the mid to upper 60’s!

7 DAY FORECAST

FRIDAY: MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO LOW 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 8-16 MPH, GUSTING TO 35 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY, COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWS 30’S NORTH TO LOW 40’S SOUTH.

SATURDAY: MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS 10-20% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER, WINDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40’S NORTH TO LOW 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 12-25 MPH, WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

SUNDAY: SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40’S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER NORTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

MONDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN AND A FEW T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING 25-35 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: DECREASING CLOUDS, RAIN ENDS. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.

TUESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLDER, RAIN FAR WEST? HIGHS IN THE LOW 40’S TO LOW 50’S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTHWEST. LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S TO LOW 40’S.

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN/STORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S TO UPPER 60’S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY, RAIN AND STORMS ENDING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S TO MID 40’S.

THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 40’S NORTH TO LOW 50’S SOUTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, COLD. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.