Wed. Zone 1 & 5 Forecast: Rain & Storms Start This Eve., Severe Weather Threat Thursday. JT.

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON – TONIGHT: We have started out the day with sunshine across Indiana, but clouds are starting to thicken up across western Indiana. These will start to spread across zones 1 and 5 this afternoon.

CURRENTCLDS

Through the afternoon rain and storms will develop to our west and southwest in Illinois. These will start to move into Indiana this evening. It looks like rain will impact central Indiana and the Indianapolis area around 6 PM or so.

6 PM

Through the evening hours’ rain will continue to spread across the forecast zones. By midnight rain and some storms will be ongoing across western Ohio and Indiana. Better chances of rain across Indiana look to be from the I-70 area and points southward.

THU12AM

Overnight rain and some thunderstorms will continue across zones 1 and 5. However, models have really been impressive with rainfall coverage across southern Indiana and western Ohio through the overnight. If this does verify, some heavy overnight rainfall would be a concern.

THU5AM

Lows overnight will be in the low 50’s to near 60 in locations.

THURSDAY: Scattered areas of rain and some storms will be ongoing by 8 AM Thursday morning.

THU8AM

Through the morning hours there looks to be dry-slot working in from the west. As it works in, rain/storms will start to slack off from west to east across the forecast area through mid-day. By 12-1 PM Thursday, models show a lull in the rain across western Indiana. This drier air will work in through the afternoon and could allow for some sunshine to break through.

THU1PM

The dry-slot and sunshine will be crucial for tomorrows forecast. If sunshine can break through in the afternoon then we will heat the environment, allowing for it to become unstable. This would allow for storms, and even severe storms, to impact the region Thursday afternoon/evening.

Highs on Thursday will be in the low 60’s to low 70’s. Winds will be very strong from the south and southwest. Gusts of 40-50 mph will be possible.

THUPANN

However, if rain and/or clouds linger then instability will be much more limited. This would really kinder the possibility for severe weather.

The NAM models have been very consistent run to run with sunshine and instability Thursday afternoon. The latest NAM 4 km shows 1000-1500 J/Kg of CAPE on average across western Indiana by 5-6 PM. However, isolated higher amounts are also forecast. These amounts would be more than enough to support severe weather.

CAPE

Aloft, mid-level winds at 500 mb will be streaking out of the southwest at 95-110 mph! Lower in the atmosphere at 850 mb, winds will be surging in from the southwest at 60-70 mph. With the wind speeds increasing with height it will allow for the atmosphere to spin, this will be supportive of strong to severe storms as well.

500MB

Right now there is a slight risk for severe weather across the southern 2/3 of Indiana. I wouldn’t be shocked to see that risk extended west and eastward with time. Main risks tomorrow will be damaging winds and hail. However, with the strong winds through the atmosphere some isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out.

IN_swody2

Most of the afternoon looks to be dry Thursday. However, a few isolated showers and storms could fire initially ahead of the cold front around 4-5 PM. Those would be dependent on how quickly instability builds and if there any leftover boundaries from prior rain/storms.

Through the afternoon and evening storms will form along the cold front out into Illinois. The front and storms will quickly push east and southeastward. It looks like storms can be expected along the IN/IL state line around 7-8 PM.

Through the evening the storms will continue moving across Indiana. Right now it looks like storms could impact Indianapolis around 8-9 PM. The cold front looks to move through the metro shortly after the storms.

THU8PM

By 11 PM storms will be moving across eastern/southern Indiana and into Ohio.

THU11PM

The cold front will quickly race to the east and southeast overnight taking any rain/storms with it. By 2 AM most of the storms should be to the south and east of the zones. However, a few lingering rain showers will be possible.

FRI 2 AM

Heavy rainfall through late Thursday night will be a big concern as well. While the 12km NAM is much less aggressive with rain, the Hi-Res NAM is becoming a big concern. The past few runs of the NAM 4 km have been consistent with very heavy rain. The latest shows swaths of 2-3.60” of new rainfall through Thursday night. We are going to be keeping a very close eye on this, if it is to verify flooding could become a serious problem.

nam12kmrain

NAM4KMRAIN

Thursday night into Friday a few showers may linger across Indiana, but overall it will be mostly dry.

Lows overnight Thursday into Friday will be chilly with temperatures in the mid 30’s north to mid 40’s south.

FRIDAY: An upper level trough will be in place across the forecast area to end the week. Through the day Friday a 500 mb area of vorticity will move across the region. This will likely prove enough to spark a few afternoon showers, especially across northern portions of zone 1. Overall though, most of the region looks dry on Friday.

500 MB

FRI5PM

Highs on Friday will be in the low 50’s north to low 60’s south. Winds will remain strong at times with gusts of 35 mph possible.

FRIPANN

Friday night any rain showers will come to an end, skies will start to clear, and winds will slack off. This will be a recipe for a chilly overnight.

Temperatures will fall into the low 30s north to low 40’s south.

WEEKEND: Another piece of energy will move across the region on Saturday. This will allow for an increase in clouds along with a few isolated rain showers to form across the region. Right now better chances of rain look to be in place across northern Illinois and northern Indiana. However, even those rain showers look to be really light in nature.

SAT500MB

Highs on Saturday will be in the low 50’s to low 60’s. Winds will be very strong once again on Saturday, gusts of 45-55 mph will be possible across the region!

SATPAN

Saturday night winds will be on the decrease and skies will be mostly clear. This will allow for temperatures to cool overnight.

Lows will be cold as temperatures fall into the mid 20s north to mid 30’s south.

Sunday an area of high pressure will ridge in from the south. This will allow for winds to calm and more sunshine to get through during the day on Sunday. This looks to be the nicest day of the weekend.

SUNDYA

Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 40’s north to near 60 south.

7 DAY FORECAST

THURSDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 60% CHANCE OF RAIN/STORMS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE POSSIBLE, WINDY. HIGHS IN THE LOW 60’S TO LOW 70’S. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 15-25 MPH, GUSTING TO 40-50 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY, RAIN AND STORMS COME TO AN END. LOWS IN THE MID 30’S NORTH TO MID 40’S SOUTH.

FRIDAY: MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN, 10-20% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO MID 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 35 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY, COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWS 30’S NORTH TO LOW 40’S SOUTH.

SATURDAY: MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS 10-20% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER, WINDY. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO LOW 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15-25 MPH, WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

SUNDAY: SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40’S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER NORTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

MONDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN AND T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60’S SOUTH.

MONDAY NIGHT: DECREASING CLOUDS, RAIN COMING TO AN END. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.

TUESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLDER. HIGHS IN THE LOW 40’S TO LOW 50’S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE AROUND 30 NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN/STORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S TO UPPER 60’S.

THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND STORMS. LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30’S AND 40’S.

THURSDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND STORMS, ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER LATE?  LOWS AROUND 30 NORTH TO AROUND 40