Zone 1 & 5 Tue. Forecast: Nice Today, Rain/Storms Moves In Wed. Afternoon, Strong/Severe Storms Thu.? JT.

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON – TONIGHT: An area of high pressure remains in control of the weather today. This will allow for sunny to mostly sunny skies to linger through the rest of the day.

CURRENT

Late this evening into the overnight clouds will start to thicken up from west to east across the state. However, we will remain dry across zones 1 and 5 through the overnight.

12amclds

Lows tonight will fall into the upper 30’s north to mid 40’s south.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds will continue to spread across the forecast area Wednesday. However, many areas will remain dry through early to mid-afternoon.

By 3-5 PM isolated areas of rain will be possible across Indiana and very western Ohio. This while more widespread rain/storms are in place to the west of the zones.

WED5PM

Through the evening rain and storms will spread eastward across Indiana and into Ohio. By 10-11 PM heavier, more persistent rain looks to be in place across Indiana.

WED11PM

Highs Wednesday will be in the low 60’s north to around 70 south.

WEDPAN

Through the overnight, rain and storms will progress across zones 1 and 5. While rain and some t’storms will be possible across the entire forecast area, heavy rain looks more likely from the I-70 corridor and points southward.

THU 5 AM

Lows Wednesday night will be in the low 50’s to near 60.

THURSDAY: Thursday morning  rain and t’storms will remain in place across zones 1 and 5.

THU8AM

By early afternoon the NAM model is indicating rain and storms will come to an end and some clearing will take place. This will all be while a cold front is still to the west of the state.

Highs on Thursday will be in the low 60’s to around 70. Winds will be very strong at times Thursday with gusts of 40-50 mph possible.

THURPAN

If clearing can occur though the afternoon, then instability will start to build back in. The latest NAM 12 km shows 1500-2000 J/Kg of CAPE across western Indiana by 5 PM Thursday evening.

CAPEIN

At the upper levels, 500 mb winds will be surging in from the southwest at 100+ mph! At lower levels 850 mb winds will be moving in from the southwest at 45-55 mph. With winds increasing with height this will create wind shear and will cause the environment to spin/rotate.

500MBIN

If clearing is accomplished and the atmosphere can destabilize as forecast, then strong and severe storms would be possible Thursday afternoon into the evening hours. I think the main threats would be damaging winds and hail. However, a few tornadoes wouldn’t be out of the question. Right now the SPC has us in a marginal risk for severe weather, but if the trend continues on models an upgrade to at least a slight risk would be warranted.

SPC THU

Regarding timing for storms…

Through mid-afternoon the front will be moving across Illinois. As it does rain and storms will develop across Illinois and progress eastward. By 4-5 PM rain and storms will be possible across western Indiana.

WED5PM

Through the evening rain and storms will race off to the southeast. The storms currently look to impact Indianapolis around 6-7 PM.

By 8-9 PM the initial front will be across western and southern Indiana, along with the thunderstorms. However, a secondary front looks to be in place across north central Indiana as well.

THU8PM

By 11 PM to 12 Am the area of rain and storms will be across southern Indiana and eastward into Ohio.

THU11PM

Through the overnight rain and storms will quickly move out of the forecast zones. While a few showers may be left over across Indiana, the overnight will be mostly dry.

By the time the rain and storms end the forecast zones will see a pretty good soaking. The latest NAM 12 km shows widespread rains of .60-1” across zones 1 and 5. Areas that do get under those heavier storms some local totals of 1-1.50” will be possible.

NAMRAINFAL

The GFS remains aggressive with some impressive rainfall totals from the I-70 area southward across Indiana with areas of 1-2” possible. Regardless, with the threat of heavy rain, flooding is a concern.

GFSRAINFALL

The rainfall and severe weather forecast will both need fine-tuned over the next 24-26 hours so make sure to check back!

Lows will be around 30 north to the low 40’s south.

FRIDAY: An upper level trough will move in Thursday night into Friday. As it does a vorticity max will swing to the southwest of the forecast zones through the day Friday.

FRI500

While I do think the better chances of rain will be to the west and south of zones 1 and 5, a few isolated showers can’t be ruled out.

FRIPANA

Highs on Friday will be cooler topping out in the low 50’s north to low 60’s south. Winds will remain strong with gusts up to 35 mph possible.

7 DAY FORECAST

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PM RAIN AND A STORM, ESPECIALLY WEST. HIGHS IN THE LOW 60’S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 MPH, GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50% CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS, SOME HEAVY. LOWS IN THE LOW 50’S TO NEAR 60.

THURSDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50% CHANCE OF RAIN/STORMS (SOME STRONG/SEVERE?), WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 60 WEST TO AROUND 70 EAST. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 15-25 MPH, GUSTING TO 40-50 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY, RAIN AND STORMS COME TO AN END. LOWS IN THE MID 30’S NORTH TO MID 40’S SOUTH.

FRIDAY: MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN, 10-20% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO LOW 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 35 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLDER. LOWS AROUND 30 NORTH TO LOW 40’S SOUTH.

SATURDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE WEST SOUTH WEST AT 10-20 MPH, WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S NORTH TO UPPER 30’S SOUTH.

SUNDAY: SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40’S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER NORTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

MONDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60’S SOUTH.

MONDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN, CHANGING OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS? LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.

TUESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLDER. HIGHS IN THE LOW 40’S TO LOW 50’S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S TO LOW 40’S.