Zone 1 & 5 Mon. Forecast: Nice Tuesday, Rain & T’storm Chances Again Wed-Thu. JT.

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Forecast Discussion

AFTERNOON – OVERNIGHT: The low pressure system and associated cold front that brought some damaging winds and hail to the region yesterday has since move off to the regions east. Behind it an area of high pressure is starting to build into the forecast zones.

current

While many places across zones 1 and 5 have started cloudy there are some breaks in the clouds across western Indiana. Through the afternoon clouds will start to thin out and erode as drier air works in with the high pressure system.

4-5PMCLD

Through the evening into the overnight mostly clear to perhaps partly cloudy skies will remain in place.

Lows will be in the upper 20’s north to upper 30’s south. So it will be a bit chilly overnight.

TUESDAY: High pressure will remain in control of our weather through the day on Tuesday. With the high in place most of the day should see sunny to mostly sunny skies. However, be late afternoon into early evening some clouds will be building in from the west.

tuesday

Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 50’s north to lower 60’s south. Winds will from the east at 5-15 mph.

TUEPAN

Tuesday night into Wednesday clouds will continue to build into the forecast zones from west to east.

Lows will be in the mid 30’s north to mid 40’s south.

WEDNESDAY: The weather will start off dry on Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies in place across zones 1 and 5.

However, as an area of low pressure moves to the northwest of the forecast areas rain chances will rise through the afternoon and evening. By 3-5 PM isolated to widely scattered areas of rain and a few t’storms will move across Indiana.

WED5PM

Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 60’s north to around 70 south. Some stronger winds will be possible with gusts up to 35 mph.

WEDPAN

Wednesday night rain and thunderstorm chances will increase across zones 1 and 5 from west to east. This will be as the cold front start to move into the area from the west.

THU2AM

Rain and storm chances will continue through the overnight across zones 1/5 in both Indiana and Ohio.

THU8AM

Lows Wednesday night into Thursday will fall into the low 50’s to near 60.

THURSDAY: Beyond Wednesday evening/overnight some significant disagreement lies between models regarding the timing of the cold front. Therefore, the timing, amounts, and placement of rain/storms.

The NAM model is much slower with the progression of the cold front. The system is forecast to slow dramatically mid-week. This would keep the warm front to the west across northwestern Illinois and Iowa Thursday.

THUNAM

If this were to verify rain and thunderstorms (some strong?) would continue to be mentioned in the forecast through at least late Thursday afternoon and into the evening. However, confidence in the longer range of the NAM remains low as this model has been unreliable and even unskillful towards the end of its forecast range.

The GFS and EURO model all bring the cold front through zones 1 and 5 Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon from west to east. I think this remains the most likely scenario with this system and won’t be shocked to see the NAM trend that way tonight into Tuesday morning. However, it is something we will watch and fine tune over the next 24-48 hours.

THI1PMTHU

Overall, I will call for mostly cloudy skies with some am rain and storms. Then, scattered areas of rain through mid-afternoon after the cold front passes on Thursday.

The heaviest rainfall looks to occur from the I-70 corridor and points southward where .30 – .75” looks possible per the EURO and GFS. The latest runs also show some higher totals south closer to the Ohio River.

gfsrain

Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 50’s north to upper 60’s far south.

THUPAN

The big story on Thursday will be in the winds. As the low pressure exits and the cold front moves through winds will really start to kick up from the west. Gusts of 45-55 mph aren’t out of the question!

FRIDAY: Through the end of the week an upper level trough will hang around. This will bring in cool temperatures along with the chance of a few isolated rain showers on Friday.

fritrough

FRI5PM

Highs on Friday will be in the low 50’s to low 60’s.

7 DAY FORECAST

TUESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY WITH PM CLOUDS WEST. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S NORTH TO LOWER 60’S SOUTH.WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30’S NORTH TO MID 40’S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20% CHANCE OF PM RAIN AND A STORM, MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE MID 60’S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 MPH, GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS. LOWS IN THE LOW 50’S TO NEAR 60.

THURSDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AND WINDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S NORTH TO MID 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 15-30 MPH, GUSTING TO 45-55 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY, 10% CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S NORTH TO MID 40’S SOUTH.

FRIDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY 10-20% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO LOW 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD. LOWS AROUND 30 NORTH TO UPPER 30’S SOUTH.

SATURDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL. HIGHS AROUND 50 NORTH TO UPPER 50’S WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT: CLEAR AND COLD. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

SUNDAY: SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S TO MID 60’S.

SUNDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40’S TO LOW 50’S.

MONDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10% CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S TO UPPER 60’S.

MONDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO UPPER 30’S.