AFTERNOON – OVERNIGHT: The area of low pressure that brought rain and storms to the state for Easter has since exited off to the east. Behind it an area of high pressure continues to build northward into the forecast region.
While some places started off the day overcast, especially across eastern zones 6 and 7, that will change through the day. As the area of high pressure moves in, drier air will as well. This will erode the cloud coverage away across the zones through afternoon. While eastern area may not see completely sunny skies, at least some sunshine will make it through this afternoon/evening.
Overnight high pressure will remain in control of the weather. So skies overnight will be clear to mostly clear.
Lows will be in the mid 30’s north to low 40’s south.
TUESDAY: Through the day on Tuesday the area of high pressure will start to move off to the northeast of the region. However, with the area of low pressure still well out to the west, the high will still be the one in control of the weather.
For this reason, Tuesday looks to be a decent day across the forecast zones. With the high in place it should allow for sunshine across zones 6 and 7 through noon to mid-afternoon. However, through the afternoon and evening hours’ clouds do look to be in the increase.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 50’s north to low 60’s south.
Tuesday night clouds will continue to increase from west to east as an area of low pressure moves across the Great Plains.
Lows overnight Tuesday will be in the low to upper 40’s.
WEDNESDAY: An area of low pressure and cold front will start to approach the region from the west. As it does clouds will continue to build in through the day on Wednesday along with some rain and storm chances.
The early morning hours on Wednesday will be dry across zones 6 and 7.
However, as we warm up and the front draws closer rain chances will start to increase. By 10 Am some isolated rain showers will become possible across both zones.
Isolated to scattered rain chances will continue into Wednesday afternoon.
Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 60’s north to around 70 south. Winds will be strong at times as well, with gusts of 30-35 mph possible.
Better chances of rain and storms looks to arrive later in the evening into the mid overnight hours as the better upward forcing arrives with the cold front.
Lows Wednesday night into Thursday will be in the low 50’s to near 60.
THURSDAY: There is some large disagreement in models past the Wednesday night timeframe. The NAM model is much slower with the progression of the area of low pressure and cold front. It places the front in western Illinois Thursday afternoon.
If this were to verify warmer temperatures, rain, and storm chances would linger across the region Thursday as well. However, longer range NAM performance is often too slow and can be unskillful. So I think this is the least likely of what will happen.
The GFS and EURO global models are much more progressive with the cold front swinging the initial front through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. I would tend to favor this solution over the slower one.
Overall, I will call for partly cloudy skies with a few isolated showers possible on Thursday.
New rainfall totals of .25-.50″ looks possible across zones 6 amd 7 with perhaps some heavier totals across southern zone 6. However, these are from some of the larger global models, so we will fine-tune these numbers over the next 24-48 hours.
Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 50’s north to upper 60’s far south.
The main story on Thursday will be in the winds. As the low pressure exits and the cold front moves through winds will really start to kick up from the west. Gusts of 45-55 mph aren’t out of the question!
FRIDAY: Through the end of the week an upper level trough will hang around. This will bring in cool temperatures along with the chance of a few isolated rain showers on Friday.
Highs on Friday will be in the low 50’s to low 60’s.
7 DAY FORECAST
TUESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY WITH PM CLOUDS WEST. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S NORTH TO LOWER 60’S SOUTH.WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30’S NORTH TO MID 40’S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20% CHANCE OF PM RAIN AND A STORM, MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE MID 60’S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 MPH, GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS. LOWS IN THE LOW 50’S TO NEAR 60.
THURSDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AND WINDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S NORTH TO MID 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 15-30 MPH, GUSTING TO 45-55 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY, 10% CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S NORTH TO MID 40’S SOUTH.
FRIDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY 10-20% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO LOW 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD. LOWS AROUND 30 NORTH TO UPPER 30’S SOUTH.
SATURDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL. HIGHS AROUND 50 NORTH TO UPPER 50’S WEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT: CLEAR AND COLD. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.
SUNDAY: SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S TO MID 60’S.
SUNDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40’S TO LOW 50’S.
MONDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10% CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S TO UPPER 60’S.
MONDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO UPPER 30’S.