Zone 1 & 5 Fri. Forecast: Very Nice Sat., Rain & Storms Possible For Easter, Warm Again Next Week. JT.

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON – OVERNIGHT: Skies have started out mostly cloudy to completely overcast across zones 1 and 5 this morning. However, high pressure is building in bringing dry air with it.

sattel

This area of high pressure will spread the dry air into the forecast area through the afternoon. This will allow the clouds to erode and sunshine to become more abundant.

4-5pm
5 PM Cloud Cover

Overnight high pressure will start to move off to the east, but overall will remain in control of the weather. I expect mostly clear skies to remain through the overnight.

Lows will fall to around 30 north to the upper 30’s south.

SATURDAY: We will be in-between two weather systems on Saturday. This will be as the area of high pressure moves off to the northeast and an area of low pressure develops to the regions west.

sat

Regardless, this will yield a very nice spring day overall. Sunny to mostly sunny skies are forecast to be in place across zones 1 and 5 thought the day on Saturday.

SATPAN

Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 50’s north to upper 60’s south. The other positive is winds will be dramatically calmer than the past few days, with southeasterly winds at 5-15 mph.

Saturday night clouds will be on the increases ahead of an approaching cold front. While clouds will be on the increase, the overnight will remain dry.

Lows Saturday night into Sunday will be in the upper 30’s north to mid 40’s south.

SUNDAY: Through the morning hours on Easter Sunday a cold front will be moving through Illinois. By 8 AM Sunday morning the cold front will still be west of the zones in Illinois.

Through the morning into the early afternoon the cold front will continue to the east. By 1-2 PM only isolated to widely scattered rain and storms will have developed across zone 6.

SUN2PM

Through the afternoon rain and thunderstorms will continue to develop along and ahead of the cold front. By 5 PM the cold front will be in place across eastern Illinois/western Indiana with scattered areas of rain and t’storms in place across zones 1 and 5 in Indiana.

SUN5PM

Through the evening the cold front will continue eastward across the state. The latest timing would put the front through Indianapolis around 7-8 PM. Ahead of the front scattered areas of rain and storms will be ongoing across Indiana and western Ohio. However, rain looks to remain possible across Indiana as we get into an Anafront situation where the front is ahead of some of the moisture.

SUN8PM

Highs on Sunday will be warm ahead of the front with temperatures in the low to upper 60’s. Winds will be strong at times with gusts of 20-30 mph possible.

SUNPAN

Through the evening rain and storms will move off to the east of the forecast area. By 1-2 AM Monday morning the rain will only be scattered in western Indiana.

MON2AM

Regarding any strong or severe storm possibilities Sunday….

The latest NAM 12 km does show some decent instability building into very eastern Indiana and western Ohio to the order of 1000-1500 J/Kg of CAPE. While this would be plenty to support storms when other conditions are in place, other factors will likely limit that threat.

cape
SUN 5 PM

The first, and possibly the most limiting factor will be upper level winds. At 850 mb’s, winds will be pretty weak with southwesterly winds at 25-35 mph. Generally, 35-40 mph is minimum thresh hold for severe weather. At 500 mb winds will be slightly displaced to the west of the main instability, so interaction looks limited.

500MB
SUN 5 PM

The other limiting factor could be instability itself. If clouds continue across the region through the day as models were insistent on in prior runs, instability would likely be cut in half.

With these things in mind I will mention the risk for some stronger storms in eastern Indiana and into Ohio Sunday afternoon/evening, with perhaps a couple isolated severe reports. However, unless things really change the overall strong/severe threat looks pretty limited at this time. We will continue to watch for any new information or trends and bring you the latest as needed.

New rainfall totals through Monday morning don’t look overly impressive across the zones. The latest forecast guidance is in good agreement of an average of .20-.40” of new rain across zones 1 and 5. However, if there are some stronger storms Sunday evening, some places could see some locally heavier totals across eastern Indiana into Ohio.

NAM 12 km
NAM 12 km

 

GFS
GFS

 

With these things being said, past experiences with these kind of systems have taught us that models can be a little aggressive with rain. So I won’t be overly shocked if we see rain chances decrease for Sunday as new model runs come in over the next 24-36 hours. 

MONDAY: Another area of high pressure will start to build into the forecast zones Monday. As it does any leftover cloud cover should erode with sunny to mostly sunny skies forecast.

MON

Highs on Monday will be in the mid 50’s to around 60.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK: The area of high pressure will remain in control of the weather for the most part Tuesday. However, there will be another low pressure system developing to the west.

For the most part, Tuesday will be dry with only an outside chance for a stray shower.

Rain chances will increase through the day into the overnight Wednesday. This will be as that area of low pressure and cold front move closer to the forecast area.

Temperatures both days do look pretty warm with highs in the low to upper 60’s for the most part. Perhaps low 70’s could be achieved on Wednesday in southern zones.

Wednesday night and Thursday rain and thunderstorm chances will increase across the regions as another cold front swings through. So by mid to late in the week precipitation will be more likely.

THURSDAY

7 DAY FORECAST

SATURDAY: SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S NORTH TO UPPER 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S NORTH TO MID 40’S SOUTH.

SUNDAY: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF EVENING RAIN & T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S WEST TO UPPER 60’S EAST. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40% CHANCE OF RAIN & T’STORMS, POSSIBLY A LATE SNOW SHOWER NORTH. LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S NORTH TO LOW 40’S SOUTH.

MONDAY: DECREASING CLOUDS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S TO AROUND 60. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 6-12 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30’S.

TUESDAY: SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S TO UPPER 60’S. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S TO MID 40’S.

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED RAIN AND T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60’S TO MID 70’S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN & T’STORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50’S TO LOW 60’S.

THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY 30% CHANCE OF RAIN & T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60’S TO LOW 70’S.

THURSDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN & STORMS EAST. LOWS IN THE 40’S.

FRIDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER. HIGHS IN THE 50’S.

FRIDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S TO MID 40’S.