Zone 1 & 5 Thu. Forecast: Rain & Storms End Tonight, Cooler Fri. , Easter Rain Chances. JT.

Home / Uncategorized / Zone 1 & 5 Thu. Forecast: Rain & Storms End Tonight, Cooler Fri. , Easter Rain Chances. JT.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON – OVERNIGHT: Rain continues to move into western Indiana along and ahead of the eastward propagating cold front. Right now only heavy pockets of rain exist, no lightning is being detected in the area.

ilradar

Through the morning into the afternoon rain and some t’storms will continue to the east and northeast. The cold front will continue to sweep eastward as well. By the lunchtime hour rain will be in place across most of Indiana with the cold front still out in Illinois.

12PM

Through the afternoon the cold front will race eastward. By 3 PM the front will already be in the Indianapolis area, along with rain and some thunderstorms.

3PM

Through the late afternoon/early evening rain and storms will come to an end from west to east across Indiana. By 5-6 PM rain and storms will be in place across eastern Indiana and into Ohio. The cold front will be along the IN/OH line at that time.

5PM

While a few isolated t’storms could be strong this afternoon with gusty winds and some small hail, the overall strong/severe threat will be extremely limited. This is thanks to a pretty dense cloud deck along with a large area of rain. With those in place the amount of instability will be limited this afternoon.

Through the evening the cold front and rain will move off to the east of the forecast zones. By 9-10 PM it will be through the entire forecast area. However, there will still be some lingering isolated rain showers.

9PM

Temperatures this afternoon and tonight will fall very quickly behind the cold front. At 1 PM temperatures across the area will be in the upper 50’s to mid 60’s. However, by 9-10 PM temperatures will already be in the upper 30’s to upper 40’s across the zones as cold air advects in.

TEMPCON

With such dramatic temperature contrasts there will be some strong winds today. Gusts of 40-50 mph will be possible at times.

WIND

While there will be some moisture left over initially in the environment, temperatures will be too warm at that time to support snow. With drier air moving in through the overnight, by the time temperatures become more conducive for snow showers we will likely be too dry for any precipitation. Overall, I won’t rule out a stray light snow shower or a flurry late, but no accumulating snow is forecast.

By the time the precipitation comes to an end this evening into the overnight there will be some healthy rainfall totals, especially across zone 1. New rainfall of .50 – 1” looks likely across a large area of Indiana and Ohio. However, places that get under the heavier pockets of rain and t’storms could see up to 1.50” locally!

RAP
RAP

 

HRRR
HRRR

FRIDAY: An area of high pressure will build into the region for Friday. This will allow dry air to move into the zones and clouds will erode, giving way to sunny to mostly sunny skies to end the workweek.

FRIDAY

Temperatures on Friday will be cool with that area of high pressure over the top of the forecast zones. Highs on Friday will be in the mid 40’s north to mid 50’s south. The good news is; winds will really start to calm with northwesterly winds at 6-12 mph.

FRIPAN

Friday night the area of high pressure will move off to the regions east. However, mostly clear skies will remain in place through the overnight.

Temperatures will be chilly Friday night into Saturday with lows falling into the low 30’s north to the upper 30’s south.

WEEKEND: Saturday we will be between two weather systems. This as the high moves off to the east and an area of low pressure develops across the Great Plains.

Regardless, it will make for a very nice start to the weekend as we will continue under mostly sunny skies.

SATPAN

Temperatures on Saturday will feel more like spring with highs in the upper 50’s north to upper 60s south. Winds remain light with a southeasterly breeze at 5-15 mph.

On Easter Sunday we will be watching an area of low pressure approach the forecast zones from the southwest. While clouds will likely be on the increase later in the day, I think there will be lots of dry time.

SUNDAY

Highs on Sunday will be warm with temperatures topping out in the upper 50’s to upper 60’s.

SUNPAN

Right now models do not bring rain and storm chances in until later in the evening and overnight Sunday, this per the latest EURO model. While the 6z NAM only goes out until 2 PM Sunday afternoon, it is in agreement with the EURO on timing up to that point. So overall, Easter looks dry across zones 1 & 5, with better rain/storm chances late into the evening and overnight.

MON 1 AM
MON 1 AM

Depending on the exact track and placement of the low pressure system, fronts, and upper level features strong storms could be a possibility Sunday evening into the overnight, especially across zone 6. Right now the details are pretty blurry and will definitely need fine-tuned.

Lows Sunday night will be in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s behind the system.

MONDAY: The area of low pressure will move off to the east of the region. While some isolated to scattered areas of rain could remain in place through the morning hours, rain chances will come to an end from west to east through the day.

MOND

Highs on Monday will be in the mid 40’s to upper 50’s.

NEXT WEEK: An area of high pressure will build in behind the system late Monday and Tuesday. This will allow the weather mid-week to remain quiet with perhaps a few rain chances possible Wednesday.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22

Temperatures next week will moderate once again with highs in the upper 50’s and 60’s mid-week.  

7 DAY FORECAST

FRIDAY: DECREASING CLOUDS, COOLER. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S NORTH TO MID 50’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 6-12 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

SATURDAY: SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S NORTH TO UPPER 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S NORTH TO UPPER 40’S SOUTH.

SUNDAY: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN & T’STORMS WEST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S TO UPPER 60’S. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40-50% CHANCE OF RAIN & T’STORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30’S NORTH TO MID 40’S SOUTH.

MONDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF AM RAIN SHOWERS.HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S TO UPPER 50’S. SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH, GUSTING TO 40 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: DECREASING CLOUDS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30’S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

TUESDAY: SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S TO LOW 60’S

TUESDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S TO MID 40’S.

WEDNESDAY: MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS WITH A 20% CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S TO MID 60’S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS, CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN MID 40’S TO MID 50’S.

THURSDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN & T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60’S TO LOW 70’S.

THURSDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN & STORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40’S TO MID 50’S.