Zone 1 & 5 Tue. Forecast: Dry Today, Rain & Storm Chances Thursday, Cooler To End The Week. JT.

Home / Uncategorized / Zone 1 & 5 Tue. Forecast: Dry Today, Rain & Storm Chances Thursday, Cooler To End The Week. JT.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON – OVERNIGHT: The area of high pressure across the southern U.S. that was in control of our weather will continue to move off to the east today. This morning a warm front has moved through Illinois and has allowed for a more southerly flow of air to return. This will allow temperatures today to warm into the upper 50’s to upper 60’s.

CURRENT

Sunny to mostly sunny skies will persist through the afternoon across zones 1 and 5. However, but 4-5 pm clouds will start to thicken up from west to east across the zones.

cldspm

Overnight clouds will continue to increase across both zones in Indiana and Ohio. Most locations look dry overnight with only a slight chance at a stray rain shower. Any shower that should occur will be short-lived and light in nature.

WED3AM

Lows overnight will be in the mid 40’s to low 50’s.

WEDNESDAY: We will remain to the east of the low pressure center and cold front, but to the south of the warm front on Wednesday. While this will allow for mostly cloudy to overcast conditions across the zones, without a primary source of lift it will keep us mostly dry too.

WEDSURF

While a few isolated rain showers can’t be ruled out, I think many locations will remain dry through the day Wednesday.

WED5PM

Despite cloud cover, temperatures will warm into the low to upper 60’s across the forecast area Wednesday. This will be thanks to strong southerly winds that could gusts up to 35 mph.

WEDPAN

Wednesday night into Thursday rain chances will be on the increase as the area of low pressure and attendant cold front will be moving closer to the region. By 2 AM Thursday morning isolated to widely scattered area of rain will be possible.

THU2AM

Rain and t’storm coverage will start to slowly rise from west to east through the overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Lows Wednesday night will be in the 50’s.

THURSDAY: BY 7-8 AM Thursday morning scattered areas of rain and a few t’storms will be moving across zones 1 and 5 as the cold front approaches from the west.

THU8AM

Rain and t’storm coverage will increase through the morning hours Thursday. By 11 AM – 12 PM the cold front will move into western Indiana. Along and just ahead of the front rain/storm coverage will be greatest. The current Hi-Res NAM shows rain and storms entering the Indianapolis area right at 11 AM Thursday morning.

THU11AM

By 1-2 PM Thursday afternoon the cold front and associated rain/storms will race off across eastern Indiana and into Ohio.

THU2PM

By 8-9 PM some rain and t’storms will be in place across zones 1 and 5 in Ohio. However, I think they will move off to the east and come to an end shortly after that.

THU8PM

With the timing and forecast coverage of rain/storms across zones 1 and 5 on Thursday some pretty healthy rains will be possible. Models are in pretty good agreement of .50-.85” of new rainfall is possible across a large portion of the forecast zones. However, places that do get under a heavier thunderstorm could see 1-1.25” locally.

AM 12 KM
NAM 12 KM

 

GFS
GFS

While no severe weather is forecast across zones 1 or 5, I won’t rule out a strong/gusty storm with some small hail or gusty winds. The biggest limiting factor to this will be instability. The NAM 12km does show some instability leftover across the region, but I am skeptical, given the extent of the cloud coverage and overnight precipitation. None the less, we will keep an eye on new data for any new information or trends.

CAPETH

Highs on Thursday will come before the frontal passage, with temperatures topping out in the low 50’s west to perhaps near 60 across Ohio. Winds will be very strong with winds gusts of 40-50 mph possible at times.

THUPAN

Thursday afternoon and evening temperatures will fall rapidly as the cold front passes through. The NAM shows the rapid temperature change expected. From 58° in Indy at 2 PM to 37° at 11 PM!

THUTMEPCHANGE

With temperatures falling quickly and some leftover moisture still in place, some snow showers will be possible Thursday evening into the overnight hours. No accumulation is anticipated. However, with rapidly falling temperatures that dip below freezing, I won’t totally rule out some slick spots overnight into Friday morning.

FRI2AM

Lows will be in the upper 20’s north to mid 30’s south.

FRIDAY: An area of high pressure will build into the forecast area Thursday night into Friday. This will control the weather to end the week across the region.

FRI

With high pressure in control Friday will be sunny to mostly sunny across the region. However, temperatures will remain on the cool side with highs in the mid 40’s north to mid 50’s south.

FRIPAN

WEEKEND: Saturday will prove to be the nicest day of the weekend. This as the area of high pressure moves to the west and a low develops to the east. While a few showers may be possible across western Illinois, overall I think conditions will be dry with plenty of sunshine.

Highs will top out in the mid 50’s north to mid 60’s south.

Sunday an area of low pressure will start to move into the forecast area. As it does clouds and precipitation will increase across the Midwest.

SUN

Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 50’s to mid 60’s.

7 DAY FORECAST

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20% CHANCE OF RAIN & AN ISOLATED T’STORM. HIGHS IN THE LOW 60’S NORTH TO UPPER 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTS FROM 25-35 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN & A T’STORM. LOWS IN THE MID 40’S WEST TO MID 50’S EAST.

THURSDAY: CLOUDY WITH A 50% CHANCE OF RAIN & T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40’S WEST TO AROUND 60 EAST. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO WEST AT 9-18 MPH, GUSTING TO 40-50 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: TEMPERATURES FALL, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20% CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

FRIDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY, COOLER. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S NORTH TO MID 50’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 6-12 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO UPPER 30’S SOUTH.

SATURDAY: SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY, A STRAY SHOWER WEST. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S NORTH TO MID 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10% CHANCE OF A SHOWER WEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40’S SOUTH.

SUNDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S TO MID 60’S.

SUNDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A 40-50% CHANCE OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S NORTH TO AROUND 40 EAST.

MONDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL, RAIN OR SNOW WEST? HIGHS IN THE LOW 40’S TO MID 50’S.

MONDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR, COLD. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.

TUESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S TO UPPER 40’S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: CLEAR AND COLD. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S TO MID 30’S.

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