Zone 6 & 7 Monday Forecast: Calm Start To Week, Rain & Storms Wed Night. Snow Showers Thursday. JT.

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Forecast Discussion

AFTERNOON – OVERNIGHT: A strong 1030 mb area of high pressure remains the influencing feature in our weather pattern today. The center of this high is in place across the TX/LA state line. However, it is so broad the northern extent has ridged into the forecast area.

NOW

Through the afternoon the ridge of surface high pressure will remain in place across the region. However, there will a very weak upper level disturbance approaching from the northwest. While this will not be enough to bring any rain to the region. It will allow for some increased cloud coverage this evening. However, I still think there will be plenty of sunshine as well.

HRRRMW_prec_cloud_006

Overnight the area of high pressure will move off to the east across the Gulf Coast region. As it does it will allow our winds to shift from west to more south/southwest.

Overnight I expect mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions, with perhaps more clouds across zone 7 than zone 6. Lows will bottom out in the upper 30’s to low 40’s.

TUESDAY: The area of high pressure will move off of the east coast on Tuesday. As it does a developing area of low pressure will be in place across the western Great Plains/Eastern Rockies. So overall we will be between pressure systems.

TUE

 I expect mostly sunny to perhaps partly cloudy skies on Tuesday. Highs will be warmer on the southerly flow; temperatures will top out in the low 60’s north to upper 60’s south. Winds will also be strong at times with gusts of 25-35 mph possible.

TUESPAN

Tuesday night the area of low pressure will start to move eastward across the Great Plains. An associated warm front will be in place across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. With the front in place, clouds will be on the increase overnight.

While, there will be clouds, there will be very little to no precipitation Tuesday night. Right now I only see perhaps a stray shower or two possible.

Lows Tuesday night into Wednesday will be in the upper 40’s north to mid 50’s south.

WEDNESDAY: Through the daytime hours on Wednesday the area of low pressure will start to move closer to the forecast region. As it does a warm front will be in place to the north and a cold front will be to our west, so we will be in the warm sector of the storm.

WFWED

This will allow for the southerly flow of air to continue across the region, allowing for temperatures to warm into the low 60’s north to upper 60’s south. If we do get more sunshine than anticipated Wednesday, some 70’s would be possible. Winds will remain strong at times with gusts of 25-35 mph possible.

WEDPAN

With that warm southerly flow in place a few isolated to widely scattered areas of rain will be possible Wednesday afternoon as well. However, not everyone will see rain during the daytime hours and where it does rain, the duration will be pretty short lived.

WED4PM

Late Wednesday night the area of low pressure will move across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. As it does a cold front will enter western Illinois around 12-1 AM Thursday.

THU1AM

As the front moves through rain and some t’storms will develop along the cold front and move east across Illinois through the overnight.

Per the latest forecast models rain/storm coverage Wednesday night into Thursday is not all that impressive. The main limiting factor will likely be lower end moisture and instability. With a thick cloud deck in place through most, if not all, of the day on Wednesday, instability will be pretty limited.

CAPE

*IF* more sunshine can be realized and more instability is achieved, rain/storm coverage would likely be greater Wednesday night into Thursday. With strong upper level winds in place as well, the potential could exist for a couple strong storms as well. Again, that’s if more instability could occur.

Lows Wednesday night will be in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s.

THURSDAY: Thursday morning the cold front will be in place across eastern Illinois. With this exiting the state cold air will quickly surge in behind the front.

As it does highs will likely come in the morning hours with temperatures in the upper 40’s to mid 50’s.

However, throughout the day temperatures will drop.

THUPAN

With temperatures falling any leftover moisture could transition over to some snow showers, especially later in the afternoon and evening. However, with warm ground temperatures and only a brief duration of snow possible, no accumulations are expected.

THU1PM

Winds on Thursday will remain strong with winds gusts of 30-40 mph possible, especially across zone 6.

FRIDAY: An area of high pressure will move into the forecast area as the low and cold front exit. This will keep us calm, but cool on Friday under mostly sunny to perhaps partly cloudy skies.

FRI

Highs on Friday will be in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s.

7 DAY FORECAST

TUESDAY: SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 NORTH TO UPPER 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTS FROM 25-35 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A 10% CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40’S NORTH TO MID 50’S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN & AN ISOLATED T’STORM. HIGHS IN THE LOW 60’S NORTH TO UPPER 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTS FROM 25-35 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A 40% CHANCE OF RAIN & A T’STORM. LOWS IN THE MID 40’S TO MID 50’S.

THURSDAY: CLOUDY, CLEARING FAR WEST. 40-50% CHANCE OF RAIN & T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40’S WEST TO AROUND 60 EAST. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO WEST AT 9-18 MPH, GUSTING TO 40 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20% CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

FRIDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY, COOLER. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S NORTH TO MID 50’S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

SATURDAY: SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S NORTH TO MID 60’S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF RAIN WEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40’S SOUTH.

SUNDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S TO MID 60’S.

SUNDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO UPPER 30’S SOUTH.

MONDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S TO MID 50’S.

MONDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR, COLD. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.