Zone 1 & 5 Fri. Forecast: Cooler This Weekend W/ Rain & Snow Poss., Bigger System Looms Next Week. JT.

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Forecast Discussion

AFTERNOON – TONIGHT: A cold front moved through the zones earlier in the morning today. That has allowed colder air to move in behind it. However, skies have remained clear.

current

Through the afternoon the cold front will move off to the south and southeast. As it does a 500 mb trough will move into the forecast region.

500MB

This afternoon clouds will start to thicken up across the zones as an area of rain start to edge closer to the area from the west.

4pmclds

By 12 – 1 AM Saturday light rain will start to move into zones 1 and 5.

SAT1AM

Rain will continue to spread into zone 5 and southern zone 1 overnight. The best chances of rain will be south of I-70 through the overnight. While I don’t expect any long durations of heavy rain, some times of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible, especially across southern Indiana.

SAT4AM

Lows overnight will fall into the low 30’s north to upper 40’s south.

WEEKEND: By 7-8 AM Saturday morning precipitation will be in place from the I-70 area and points southward in Indiana and Ohio. While most of this will be falling as rain, there will be enough cold air in place to transition rain over to heavy, wet snow or a rain/snow mix across the I-70 area.

SAT 8AM

Through the morning hours temperatures will moderate across the forecast zones. As they do, any snow will make the transition back over to rain.

While there is the chance for snow in the forecast I am not anticipating much, if any accumulation. This is because air temperatures will be right at to just above freezing. Also ground temperatures are already warm from warmer than average temperatures and sunshine over the past couple of weeks. So while perhaps a coating of snow will be possible in local areas on roofs, cars, etc… No major accumulations are in the forecast.

By 1-2 PM Saturday afternoon there looks to be a break in rain as the first surge moves off to the east and northeast.

SAT2PM

However, after 3-4 PM more isolated to scattered areas of rainfall will begin to develop as the main upper level low intensifies a little and spins into the region.

SAT5PM

Through the evening more rain looks to develop across western Indiana and into Illinois where there will be better convergence.

Highs on Saturday will be in the low 40’s to low 50s.

SATPAN

Through the overnight Saturday into Sunday rain and some snow look to be primarily focused off to the west of zones 1 and 5. This will be as the upper level low spins southeastward across Illinois. So the primary area of precipitation will be there.

Overnight lows Saturday night into Sunday will fall into the mid 20’s to mid 30’s. Also, keep in mind of surfaces are wet Saturday night into Sunday they could become slippery with temperatures falling below freezing in locations.

Sunday morning a few rain showers will be moving across southwestern portions of Indiana in zone 5. However, many locations look to be dry.

SUN8AM

Sunday looks to be a primarily dry day across the zones as the main area of rain will exit to the south and southwest of the area. However, I won’t rule out a some isolated rain showers Sunday afternoon.

SUN5PM

Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 40’s north to low 50’s south. Winds on Sunday will also be strong at times, with gusts up to 30 mph possible.

SUNPAN

 Sunday evening into the overnight precipitation will end and there could even see some clearing before the sunsets Sunday night. Especially across western and northwestern portions of zone 1 and 5.

It looks like the best areas to see any decent rain will be from I-70 south across Indiana and into Ohio over the weekend. While .20-.40” looks more common across the area, there will be some places that could see .50” or so under the heavier areas of rain.

15RAIN

MONDAY: Sunday night through Monday a strong area of high pressure will build northward into the forecast area. While some clouds will likely be in place through the day, Monday looks to be mostly sunny to partly cloudy across zones 1 and 5.

mon

Highs on Monday will be in the low 40’s north to mid 50’s south.

MONPAN

TUESDAY: Late Monday night into Tuesday a warm front will lift northward through the forecast area.

tuewf

As it does, it will allow for a return to a warm, moist southerly flow of air on Tuesday. Highs Tuesday afternoon will return to above average, topping out in the mid 50’s to mid 60’s.

MID – LATE NEXT WEEK: Another strong area of low pressure will be developing across the Great Plains once again next week. As it does it will bring rain and t’storm chances to the region. Right now there’s some disagreement in modeling on timing and intensity so this is something we will have to iron out as we get closer to the forecast period.

thustorm

7 DAY FORECAST

SATURDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, ANY AM SNOW CHANGES OVER TO RAIN. 30% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHS IN THE LOW 40’S NORTH TO LOW 50’S SOUTH. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY, 20-30% CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY WEST. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW ACC.

SUNDAY: MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, 30% CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, THEN CHANGING TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S NORTH TO LOW 50’S SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW ACC.

SUNDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

MONDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOW 40’S NORTH TO MID 50’S SOUTH. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

TUESDAY: MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH A 10% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T’STORM NORTH. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S NORTH TO MID 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 8-16 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF RAIN OR A T’STORM NORTH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 60’S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY, SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND T’STORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50’S TO AROUND 60.

THURSDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20% CHANCE OF T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE 60’S.

THURSDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND T’STORMS WEST. LOWS IN THE LOW 50’S WEST TO LOW 60’S EAST.

FRIDAY: CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND T’STORMS MOVING EAST. HIGHS IN THE 60’S, BUT FALLING THROUGH THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT: RAIN AND STORMS END, CLEARING. LOWS IN THE 30’S.