Zones 1 & 5 Thu. Forecast: Nice Today, Cooler Fri., Snow This Weekend. JT.

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Forecast Discussion

AFTERNOON – OVERNIGHT: The low pressure across the northern great lakes has occluded and will continue to weaken throughout the day. As it does it will push to the east and an area of high pressure will move into the region from the southwest.

currentl

At the upper levels there is piece of energy moving across zone 1 today. This will be the focal point for the development of some isolated afternoon rain showers across northern Indiana, some of which could be in very northern zone 1. However, most of the area will see dry conditions with plenty of sunshine this afternoon.

500mb

Overnight conditions will remain dry and calm. Lows will fall into the mid 30’s north to around 40 south.

FRIDAY: Through the morning hours on Friday a cold front will be moving south across Indiana. While the environment will be too dry for rain, it will allow for cold air to move in behind it.

coldfrony

Highs on Friday will be cooler topping out in the mid 40’s north to mid 50’s south.

FRI

FRIDAY NIGHT – WEEKEND: An upper level trough of low pressure will start to move into the region late Friday into Friday night. Ahead of the trough rain will form and move into Indiana Friday night into Saturday.

923adb29-db07-4894-b29a-13d4d7efd224

A few showers will be possible as early as 5-6 PM across western zone 6 ahead of the upper level trough.

FRI5PM

However, better chances of precipitation will hold off until the overnight around 1-2 AM.

SAT2AM

Overnight Friday temperatures will fall into the upper 20’s north to upper 30’s south. With precipitation working into the forecast area rain could mix with or change over to snow form the I-70 area northward.

By 8 AM scattered rain showers will still be in place across zone 6 and southern zone 1. However, farther north some wet snowflakes will be mixed in.

SAT 8 AM

As temperatures warm early on Saturday any snow that is occurring will change back over to rain through the morning.

Saturday afternoon we continue with the scattered rain across the forecast zones. I will add the NAM 4 km used here is a little aggressive with rain Saturday. I won’t be surprised to see coverage be less than what is depicted via this model.

SAT5PM

Highs on Saturday will remain cool with temperatures topping out in the mid 40’s north to mid 50’s south.

SATPAN

Saturday night into Sunday morning the upper level trough will start to swing into Indiana from the west and northwest.

As it does precipitation chances will remain, especially across western Indiana where the better upper level lift will be located. However, with temperatures falling into the mid 20’s to mid 30’s across the forecast area rain showers will likely change over to snow showers or a mix across zone 1 and zone 5.

Through Sunday morning a rain/snow mix will remain possible across southern zone 6 with heavy, wet snow farther north across zone 1.

SUN8AM

By mid-day into early afternoon temperatures will moderate and warm us enough to change precipitation back over to all rain.

SUN 2PM

Through the afternoon into the evening Sunday rain chances will diminish across the forecast zones.

SUN8PM

Highs on Sunday will be in the low 40’s north to low 50’s south.  

SUNPAN

Rainfall totals over the weekend won’t be overly impressive in most places, with .20 – .40” likely to be the average rainfall. However, locally there could be some spots that pick up .50-.80”.

rfall

While models do a have few splotchy areas of accumulating snow across the area, I think any accumulations will be just that…splotchy. With surface temperatures just below to just above freezing the snow will be very heavy and wet, likely melting on contact with the ground that is above freezing.

However, I will say places that do see temperatures that fall below freezing overnight Saturday into Sunday (zone 1) could experience some slick spots Sunday morning. This is something we will watch and will fine-tune as more data becomes available.

MONDAY: An strong 1024 mb area of high pressure will build into the forecast regions Sunday night into Monday. This will allow for a mix of sun and clouds on Monday with no rainfall forecast.

MONHIGH

However, temperatures to start the week will remain cool. Highs will top out in the low 40’s north to mid 50’s south.

NEXT WEEK: Another area of low pressure will develop out across the Great Plains Monday into Tuesday. As it does the high will move off to the east. This will allow a strong warm front to move into the region Monday night and Tuesday.

WF

In result, temperatures will once again become unseasonably warm with highs back in the 60’s to near 70.

However, by Wednesday and especially Thursday, rain and t’storms will enter back into the forecast across the forecast zones.

THU

7 DAY FORECAST

FRIDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY, WITH A 10% CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S NORTH TO MID 50’S SOUTH. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY 30% CHANCE OF RAIN MIXING WITH SOME SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO UPPER 30’S SOUTH.

SATURDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, AM SNOW SHOWERS TO RAIN. 30% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S NORTH TO MID 50’S SOUTH. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY, 20% CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY WEST. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

SUNDAY: MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, 20% CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER, THEN CHANGING TO RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S NORTH TO LOW 50’S SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

MONDAY: MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40’S NORTH TO MID 50’S SOUTH. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING FROM 25-35 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

TUESDAY: MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, WARMER. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO MID 60’S SOUTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH LOWS MID 40’S TO MID 50’S.

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60’S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY, CHANCE FOR RAIN AND T’STORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40’S TO NEAR 60.

THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S TO UPPER 60’S.

THURSDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND A FEW T’STORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S TO LOWER 50’S.